A reason for hope.

Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
So I have been watching the ice in Lake Superior pretty closely the past few days. The weekend was not good for us UP LES lovers, but the past 36 hours has provided steady winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts to 35. Even with the temps hovering around zero during the day and in the -15 to -20 degree range at night, the winds have caused enough upwelling on the west end of the lake to erode some of the ice there. Not all of it, but nice to see a loss of ice, rather than gain at these temps.

The top image is from yesterday afternoon the bottom from this afternoon. You can see the larger area of dark blue (open water) to the east of the MN shoreline in the bottom photo:

ls.jpg

My main concern is later this Sunday and into Monday when another lobe of really cold air looks to occur with light winds. After that, looks like some winds and even temps into the 20's during the day. So there is still hope!

-John
 
S

Skylar

Super Moderator
Staff member
Administrator said:
So I have been watching the ice in Lake Superior pretty closely the past few days. The weekend was not good for us UP LES lovers, but the past 36 hours has provided steady winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts to 35. Even with the temps hovering around zero during the day and in the -15 to -20 degree range at night, the winds have caused enough upwelling on the west end of the lake to erode some of the ice there. Not all of it, but nice to see a loss of ice, rather than gain at these temps.

The top image is from yesterday afternoon the bottom from this afternoon. You can see the larger area of dark blue (open water) to the east of the MN shoreline in the bottom photo:

View attachment 45417

My main concern is later this Sunday and into Monday when another lobe of really cold air looks to occur with light winds. After that, looks like some winds and even temps into the 20's during the day. So there is still hope!

-John
Click to expand...

Thanks for the update John, fingers and toes crossed!! :D
 
D

Dsbasecamp

New member
The way I see it .. with Johns forecast is that,,,ST Patty"s Day..Will be a good day to Eat=&-Drink At the Mosquito ...Think Green
 
garyl62

garyl62

Active member
mosquito said:
The way I see it .. with Johns forecast is that,,,Mid March will be great to Eat=&-Drink At the Mosquito ...Think Green
Click to expand...

I always knew you were a Cat guy Don! oh wait, did I alter a certain day out of your quote... ;) BTW, how's that Cat trailer doing on the side of your place? See you a week from today!
 
cooksend

cooksend

Active member
Great update John! I sure would hate to see it end for the season and I had kind of lost hope! Let the winds blow!!!
 
H

HardwaterHoosier

Member
you guys are depressing me. "theres still hope, st.Pats day, arctic cat, finish the season"
I've got less than 100 miles on and I'm still trying to find a gap in my schedule to get north.
 
D

dblshock

New member
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/great-lakes-ice-cover-largest-century-20140207 (Charts)

Great Lakes Ice Cover Is the Largest We've Seen This Century

One effect of the persistently cold winter of 2013-2014 is showing up on the world's largest group of freshwater lakes.

According to an analysis by NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, ice covered 78.7 percent of the Great Lakes on February 6. Not since early 1996 has ice been so widespread on the Great Lakes.

This is an abrupt turn around from the past four winters, during which the peak ice coverage remained around 40 percent or less. As you can see in the graph below, the 40-year average is just over 51 percent.

Dating to 1973, the two years with the largest ice coverage were 1979 (94.7 percent peak) and 1994 (90.7 percent).

When looking at individual lakes, just over 92 percent of Lake Superior, just under 88 percent of Lake Huron, almost 95 percent of Lake Erie, and around 53 percent of Lake Michigan is ice covered. Much deeper Lake Ontario is only about 29 percent of ice covered.

As a result, caves near the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore are now open to foot traffic, thanks to sufficiently thick ice on Lake Superior.

(PHOTOS: Apostle Islands Ice Caves)

Winter weather expert for The Weather Channel, Tom Niziol (Twitter | Facebook), noted the current Great Lakes ice cover was pacing quite close to that from early February 1977, another year in which the peak ice cover topped 90 percent.

Let's compare the current ice cover to the early February ice cover in the two standard-bearing years mentioned above:
•Feb. 5, 1979: 66.8%
•Feb. 7, 1994: 83.6%

So, we're pacing ahead of 1979 but behind 1994.

Will the cold persist to allow the ice to continue to spread?

Through most of the upcoming week, temperatures will remain generally much colder than average over the Midwest and Northeast.

Beyond that, there are some preliminary indications the cold may finally ease up the following week, but that outlook remains too uncertain at this time.
 
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