Ask John

[HighmarkClark]

John
Has anyone or do you keep track of the accurey of your snow fall predictions for northern WI and the UP?

 

[jd]

First off, I love your profile name! Classic!

I have not had anyone track my accuracy, not sure I want the truth to be revealed! Actually, not really sure how you could go about doing it. Most times I believe I am at least in the ballpark, although Mother Nature sure has a way of making a mockery of the most well intended forecast!

-John

 

[russholio]

John,

What criteria/data do meteorologists use to predict how much snow a given event will produce? I'm assuming cloud density, size of the system, how fast it's moving and in what direction....anything else?

 

[jd]

John,

What criteria/data do meteorologists use to predict how much snow a given event will produce? I'm assuming cloud density, size of the system, how fast it's moving and in what direction....anything else?

It's primarily how much precip will fall and then the temps at which the precip is falling. There are "rules of thumb" as to how much snow will accumulate based on what the temp is while it is falling. Warmer temps= wetter snow and less accumulation, vs. cooler temps= drier and fluffier snow and higher amounts. Things like the size of the system, it's speed and the amount of atmospheric moisture it has to work with will determine how much precip will fall.

-John