Buffalo Ny verse michigan Lake effect

mburchart

New member
John,

i am not a meteorologist but with what is happening down in buffalo is making me wonder about it happening in Mich. could that type of snow happen in the Michigan snow belts and what type of weather / wind event would need to line up here for that to happen. I think that based on the fact that lake Erie is long and warmer then the other lakes that it could be the main reason. just looking for your input.


Thanks.
 

frnash

Active member
I'm certainly no LES expert either, just a long-time observer, but just a hunch:

When the prevailing wind lines up with the the relatively long narrow axis of Lake Erie, and the rest of the LES conditions are right, it may just result in narrow but intense bands of LES, impinging directly on the Buffalo area, as suggested by this, gleaned from PastyCam today:
By Capt. Paul (Eclogite) on Wednesday, November 19, 2014 - 10:20 am:

… Speaking of snow, just be glad you don't live near Buffalo, NY this morning. I talked with a friend who said she has just a dusting and can still see some grass in her front yard. But, just 10 miles south, they have over 7 feet!

On the other hand, The UP, and the Keweenaw in particular, generally experiences a broader "fetch" across Lake Superior, which tends to deliver a wider expanse of multiple bands of less intense LES, which often just continue slowly wandering to and fro, delivering a much lighter (in water content) dose of LES over a wider area; though lighter in density, it does tend to accumulate over time to greater annual snowfall than nearly anywhere else east of the Rockies (from Wikipedia):
"Delaware [, Michigan] is recognized as the "Snow Capital of the Midwest". The Keweenaw County Road Commission maintains an unofficial record of snowfall at this location. The annual average, dating back to 1910, is around 240 inches. This is largely a result of Lake-effect snow. This average is the greatest of any location in the Great Lakes snow belts. For the entire US east of the Rocky Mountains, only select mountainous locations in New England receive more snow."

Handoff to John for the real scoop.
 

frnash

Active member
Another factor for the UP:

While LES in da UP may be typically less dense (water content) — sometimes you can almost clean your driveway of freshly fallen snow with a leaf blower — it often will just continue, day after day, for 20 or more days in a row (I think the record is something like 45 consecutive days? I have personally witnessed something well over 20 days in succession.) This all adds to the annual snowfall record, which is merely the cumulative total of the daily snowfall amounts (each measured before any significant settling or sublimation occurs).
 

jd

Administrator
Staff member
mburchart-

frnash did a good job in his first post. What happens with some, but not all LES events off of Lakes Erie and Ontario (Ontario is the lake responsible for the big snows near Buffalo) is that when the winds blow from the WSW, they are able to travel over a long fetch (distance) of lake surface and pick up lots of heat and moisture. What also happens in some of these WSW LES events is that you get land breezes to form on both the north and south shores of the lake. They cause convergence of the air where the LES clouds/snow is occurring out over the lake and you get enhanced lift. All of these factors will lead to very intense bands of snow. Many times at 4-6"/hr. With rates like that, you do not need to have the winds change direction too fast to get lots of snow.

It is possible to get similar types of banding on the other Great Lakes, although they are typically much more rare. Not from the intensity standpoint, but because the banding typically does not last too long. Sometimes they will set up on the SE end of Lake MI and blow into far SW lower MI and/or NW IN. Intense banding can also blow off Lake Huron into portions of southern Ontario. I have experienced 2 episodes of 6"/hr snow here on the Keweenaw, although they only lasted around 20-30 minutes. I have also experienced several 4"/hr snows- that I have nicknamed "Bayfield Bombers" as the bands typically start just to the north of the Bayfield Peninsula and due to convergent winds cause a narrow, but intense band to hit the Keweenaw. Those have dumped 12-18"+ snows in a 24 hour period or less, but nothing even close to 6 feet!

A "once in a lifetime" snow event hit the Soo back in December 1995. A low caused some system snow to get strongly enhanced by SE winds off Lake Huron, then as the low passed off to the east of the Soo, the winds turned WNW and caused heavy LES to blow off of Superior. That was a multi-day event, but still produced just shy of 62" over the city and a depth of 50".

-John
 

frnash

Active member
… (Ontario is the lake responsible for the big snows near Buffalo …
Huh? Ontario?:confused:
Buffalo.JPG
 

mburchart

New member
Johm and Frnash, thanks for the good read. This all makes sense as I remember learning about fetch in my college days. 7 feet of snow today in Buffalo and 60 and rain by the weekend. Let the flooding begin.

Thank you.
 

weatherjan

New member
The upper three Great Lakes (Superior, Huron and Michigan) serve to moisten the air giving a boost to snow bands for both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Lake Ontario benefits from contributions from Lake Huron.

Many people forget but Buffalo experienced a three-day storm near the end of Dec. 2001 that dropped 83.5".
 
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