Cant wait for Johns forecast
- Thread starter euphoric1
- Start date
If 2021 is anything like this year, you can expect Mud slides in March, Floods in February, and Aliens by April.
RIGHT! Amen to that!
Not gonna throw out a teaser for a crowd pleaser? Or is there nothing to be pleased about??
Actually, I would not feel very comfortable saying too much right now. Have to wait for one last chip to fall to seal the deal. So Oct 15th it is!
-John
600_RMK_144
Active member
...And THAT right there is our teaser. Looking forward to it!!!!!
Obviously ENSO conditions are part of your forecast, but do you consider solar activity? Does our current state (near solar minimum) affect your forecast?
Also, is there any correlation between AO and SPV conditions in the fall, to what they do from Dec-March? (Like when El Nino in the fall usually means El Nino stays through winter)
ENSO is a big player in my outlook, the solar activity does not. I really do not believe there is enough of a difference in the solar activity to have a measurable effect on weather. I am willing to change my mind if a correlation is found though.
As for things like the AO, that is really a tail wagging the dog situation. While the AO is an actual thing and quantifiable, it is really just a term used to explain the current status of a pressure relationship in the Atlantic and is controlled by the jetstream and does not actually control it.
I have never heard of the SPV.
A number of things I use are actually my own tools I have developed over the years. None of them are strong correlations, but when used in conjunction with each other can give a hint as to what the winter will be like. I like to keep these personal tools private though.
-John
Stratospheric Polar Vortex.
Do you ever track the historical accuracy your seasonal forecasts, to see if you do better than NWS/NOAA or Farmer's Almanac? I think we all know by now that seasonal forecasts are basically for fun, and will never have a high degree of accuracy, but everyone seems to enjoy reading them.
I really believe that there is some correlation between our winter temperatures and solar cycles. It's never a guarantee, just like ENSO isn't. But remember that bitter cold winter of 2013-14? Near solar minimum. Remember the great winters of the mid-nineties, and the bitter cold of 1996, when Superior froze over? Near solar minimum.
Thanks for taking the time to answer.
G
G
Guest
More mice moving indors than normal here. Also Geese flew early. All summer birds gone now. Pigs carrying sticks in their mouths. Ankle surgery for me in a week. All signs point to a monster of a winter.
I believe much of the hot air will cease after Nov. 3rd. Then again???
I have the same experience here with mice this year... moving indoors more than "normal".
So many dying with a last meal of peanut butter in their mouths.
As to any forecast, as I get older (oh, wait - I am already there), the snow gets heavier and heavier regardless of depth.
But it remains welcome and glorious! The best "big boy" toy ever created!
Thank you Mother Nature!
I have the same experience here with mice this year... moving indoors more than "normal".
So many dying with a last meal of peanut butter in their mouths.
As to any forecast, as I get older (oh, wait - I am already there), the snow gets heavier and heavier regardless of depth.
But it remains welcome and glorious! The best "big boy" toy ever created!
Thank you Mother Nature!
HAHA - They seem to have the same problem in my unattached garage!
This stuff makes me laugh. Of course I am A HUGE FAN OF WINTER. Bugs and humidity are very high on my hate list. However, guys on a snow/snowmobiling site talking about future winter forecasts are about as bias as the mainstream media. I think we have a narrative boys.... One week to go before Johns report. Can't wait!!
Some people might say that John's forecasts carry some confirmation bias, too. Not me, but some people.
I like his forecasts, because he talks about the potential of systems that are still days out, and have low to moderate chance of providing snow. He always mentions that, but then some people complain that he talked about snow that never materialized, because they skipped right over the part about the uncertainty.