Computing Models

[royaloaks]

Hello John. My questions are; which computing model do you favor as far as Euro, GFS or the short term NAM? Or do you use some formula/combination to come up with your forecasts?
Do you believe the Euro has been outperforming the GFS lately especially in the long term forecasts?
I heard with the upcoming storm slated for Sunday Feb 10th. The 3 models are widely different as of today. Is this common?
Thanks,
Scott

 

[jd]

Hi Scott.

Please do not take this personally, but I like to keep my methods pretty close to my chest and not show my "cards" too much. With that said, I look at most of the model guidance and will many times use different parts from many different ones for my final product. Sort of a "blend" so to speak.

With regards to the Sun-Mon event, there is some fairly meaningful differences between the GFS/NAM and the Euro, which is not that uncommon- unfortunately!

-John

 

[royaloaks]

Nothing taken personally. Thanks for the insight.
Scott

 

[JimAndros]

His "close to the chest" method is right more than anyone else - and that is all that counts.

But here is what I fail to understand; It can drizzle and be foggy all day in the summer and it isn't a storm, an event or anything else. But 2 or 3 inches of fluff over 12 hours from a clipper & the media is talking about STORM totals.

John, when does it become a storm to you? I understand that temp, winds & moisture content all make a difference, not just inches.

Jim

 

[jd]

John, when does it become a storm to you?

Boy, that's a tough one.

I guess first, to me a "storm" can happen both in the cold season and the warm season, but I guess in almost all cases, it has to have a closed center of circulation, otherwise I typically refer to it as a front or maybe "a piece of upper air energy". I guess when it comes to snow storms, it would typically mean a closed low that produces at least 3-4" of snow. But no promises I will adhere to those guidelines all the time!

-John