El Nino chances

[G]

Hi John. Just read a internet blurb that some expert is calling for a better than 70% chance of a 'strong' El Nino developing by the middle of the year. Refresh my memory - what does that mean for our upcoming winter? Thanks. Grub.

 

[jd]

About the exact opposite of this past winter. Above average temps- centered across the Canadian Prairies and north central US, but sometimes stretching into the Midwest.

Typically below average snowfall too, but not as strong a correlation to snowfall than there is to temps. However, the warm temps increase the odds of thaws.

FWIW, I also believe there is a good chance of an El Nino developing in advance of next winter.

-John

 

[G]

Thanks John. I will hold off on my 192 inch track extension conversion kit.

 

[attack_06]

so if it gets going in advance does that give better chances it will calm down by the time winter gets here

 

[jd]

so if it gets going in advance does that give better chances it will calm down by the time winter gets here

Pretty doubtful. They tend to peak at around Christmas time. So an early start does not better the chances it will weaken early. It might actually increase the odds it will be stronger.

-John

 

[Stack]

Pretty doubtful. They tend to peak at around Christmas time. So an early start does not better the chances it will weaken early. It might actually increase the odds it will be stronger.

-John

Wow, it would be pretty extreme to go from an Epic winter like this past one to a strong El Niño. I know there were some rumblings on a super El Niño like 98?, but that seems to have quieted down.

-Stack