El Niño

[farmermark]

Hi John,

What's the latest on the El Niño?

Also the 6-10 and 8-14 NWS have been spot on for temps, but very wrong on precip. Any thoughts?

Thanks,

Mark

 

[jd]

It is still not yet an El Nino. Sea surface temps in the region are above average, but the warming seen this spring has leveled off, even slipped back a bit. So there is still a chance for an El Nino this winter, but the odds have been reduced some, due to the latest trends. Also, the odds on it being a strong El Nino have also decreased.

I really have not been following the NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, so I cannot comment.

-John

 

[attack_06]

Thanks for the info give us another update on this topic around this date in August or September

 

[farmermark]

Fall weather change

There is a change between the spring to summer and summer to fall with the type and predictability of rains. I know before there was no direct reason as to why, but is there a distinct change you ever see to give you a hint it's coming?

I hope my question makes sense

Mark

 

[jd]

Mark.

There is a change from the typical precip in the cool seasons vs the precip in the summer. In the summer, much of the precip is formed from clouds that are convective in nature (like a thunderstorm). Because of that, the rainfall is typically more intense, but can also be more spotty. So one spot can get an inch and just down the road, little to none. Convective precipitation is also harder for the models to predict. They do an OK job, but not as good as the overrunning type of precip seen in autumn, winter and early spring.

-John