Forecasting

[blkhwkbob]

John, do weather forecasters go back and check their forecasts to see how accurate they were? Like say, the temperature and snowfall I predicted in a certain city--how accurate was I five days ago, three days ago, and yesterday? I would swear that a certain forecaster on Fox 32 Chicago in the morning has been off by more than ten degrees several times in the past few weeks. Does anybody monitor this?

Also, they always talk about a European Model forecast. It always is different than the "American Model" I guess? Which one of these models is known to be more accurate?

Thanks!

 

[jd]

Some do, but I am not sure all. It can be nearly impossible to be 100% correct, just because if 4" is predicted for a certain area and all but two locations get that 4" and the others get 5, technically that forecast would not be 100% correct. Being off consistently by 10 degrees would not be something any forecaster would be proud of!

It varies, depending on the situation as to which model is more accurate. The trick is to follow them very closely, take notes on how they are doing and go from there.

-John