I know forcasting is a tough thing to do, but how can a storm total be off by 8 inches? Don't the models know ahead of time how much moisture is available to a system ahead of time? You are usually darn close, but my local Milwaukee station said 1-2", just a dusting, and I have almost 9 inches. Thanks John.
How can they miss this bad?
- Thread starter mxz_chris
- Start date
harvest1121
Well-known member
I was watching Fox news out of Chicago and the Weather Man said he never saw a storm have so much snow on the tail end.
Usd2bable2ride
New member
And he's only been forcasting for 8 years. On Fox news that is. Explains why he hasn't seen such a storm.
reaper969x
New member
Are you guys complaining about TOO MUCH SNOW!!!! didn't know there was such a thing? Trade you for the couple inches of RAIN that we got! LOL
mxz_chris.
A couple of things. First you have to avoid falling into the trap that what happens outside your window is happening everywhere. While you may have picked up 8", many areas not far from you only picked up a couple of inches. Snowfall can be very localized and amounts can vary greatly from one locale to another- especially when it is the light and fluffy kind that has been falling since Sat am.
The models do usually represent the moisture and precip fields pretty well, but their resolutions are on the order of 25-50 miles or more in most cases, so any localized variance is not picked up.
The bottom line is, snowfall is one of the most difficult things to forecast accurately because of the fact that it can vary quite a bit in a short distance and most folks will notice the difference between 3" and 8" of snow, but will not notice the difference between .10" and .35" of rain, which is what the difference in liquid equivalent is in this case.
-John
A couple of things. First you have to avoid falling into the trap that what happens outside your window is happening everywhere. While you may have picked up 8", many areas not far from you only picked up a couple of inches. Snowfall can be very localized and amounts can vary greatly from one locale to another- especially when it is the light and fluffy kind that has been falling since Sat am.
The models do usually represent the moisture and precip fields pretty well, but their resolutions are on the order of 25-50 miles or more in most cases, so any localized variance is not picked up.
The bottom line is, snowfall is one of the most difficult things to forecast accurately because of the fact that it can vary quite a bit in a short distance and most folks will notice the difference between 3" and 8" of snow, but will not notice the difference between .10" and .35" of rain, which is what the difference in liquid equivalent is in this case.
-John
warrior1000
New member
John -
You bring up a good question. Is there a chart or some easy formula to determine the snow vs. rain equation?
You bring up a good question. Is there a chart or some easy formula to determine the snow vs. rain equation?