i got a question

[subaru2006]

Or a couple... lol. When you predict snow fall and produce the forecast graphic does that include lake effect snow? If so what is the biggest determing factor that allows you to predict the amount of lake effect the system/front can produce?
Thanks
Subaru2006

 

[jd]

Yes, my snowfall graphics include all sources of new snow, including lake effect.

The biggest factor is to have no ice on the lake. But I guess that would also be the most obvious. So the other factors are the air temps from around 3000 feet above the lake to 10,000 feet above the lake, wind direction/speed and any moisture in the air that would help snow form in addition to the lake making it.

-John

 

[Polarice]

I saw on the news today that ice on a lake can actually enhance lake effect snow because of 'bumps' in the ice. Is this a fact or theory?

 

[jd]

I saw on the news today that ice on a lake can actually enhance lake effect snow because of 'bumps' in the ice. Is this a fact or theory?

I would love to have heard the explanation for this, as it makes no sense to me. Lake effect snow happens because heat and moisture are transferred to the air from the OPEN water surface. Ice on a lake completely shuts this process down.

-John

 

[josh_4184]

John,

Here is a link to a Metoerologist on Accutweather, who had something interesting to say about the lake effect while the lake is froze over, could you elaborate? I will just past the text of the part I find intersting and the full link if you wish to read.

"While lake effect does occur when most of the lakes are frozen over due to frictional differences between the smooth ice and bumpy land, there is much more energy released when the lakes are unfrozen."

Source
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-lakeeffect-snow-friday-in-1/60141

 

[Polarice]

I would love to have heard the explanation for this, as it makes no sense to me. Lake effect snow happens because heat and moisture are transferred to the air from the OPEN water surface. Ice on a lake completely shuts this process down.

-John

That's what I thought too. I forget where I heard it as I watch wayyyyyyyy too many forecasts and videos.

I've heard that hills can effect LES too by causing swirling. Such as the different big hills in Munising. Some locals were saying that. What is the deal with that?

 

[Polarice]

Source
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-lakeeffect-snow-friday-in-1/60141

This is where I read that at.

 

[440_chazz]

No surprise that the claim came from "in"accuweather.

 

[jd]

Well, that would not be lake effect then. He sounds like he it talking about the difference in frictional values of land vs. a frozen lake leading to some kind of updraft.

Lake effect snow is caused by the addition of heat and moisture from an unfrozen body of water leading to clouds and precip.

Terrain can enhance lake effect (ie. typically the heaviest snow in the lake snow belts falls in the higher terrain).

-John

 

[Polarice]

Thanks John for clarifying that. Now can we get an early forecast? Is there any storms/cold temps with lake effect coming to the central UP? I'm heading up on Friday to Wednesday. If not that's alright