John, has the El Nino continued to strengthen? I seem to recall that many Novembers in El Nino years are very cool, and the El Nino adverserly affects (from a snow lover's perpective) the weather from mid-December through January. Is that an accurate recollection? I don't mind unseasonably warm Novembers, especially in Chicagoland.
Is the El Nino strengthening?
- Thread starter regionrat
- Start date
A
admin
Guest
It has strengthened in the past few weeks. Not sure if that is what has caused the change from October, but the current pattern is very El Nino-like. Perhaps we can get it out of the way now and have it not impact as much of the winter.
I can add that many times the snow season will go out with a bang across the Northwoods, with several large spring storms.
-John
I can add that many times the snow season will go out with a bang across the Northwoods, with several large spring storms.
-John
towtruck
There is not really a yes or no answer to that. Lake effect snow is a function of a lot more than air/water temps. Things like the stability of the air, wind direction, moisture in the air...
So the true answer to your question would be maybe yes and maybe no!
I suppose if it were warm enough to keep the lakes wide open yet cold enough to produce the LES, then yes. However, maybe it would be too warm to even produce the LES, then the answer would be no.
-John
There is not really a yes or no answer to that. Lake effect snow is a function of a lot more than air/water temps. Things like the stability of the air, wind direction, moisture in the air...
So the true answer to your question would be maybe yes and maybe no!
I suppose if it were warm enough to keep the lakes wide open yet cold enough to produce the LES, then yes. However, maybe it would be too warm to even produce the LES, then the answer would be no.
-John
booondocker
New member
Don't you just love this answer?? John, you should have been a weatherman...you would have fit right...ah, wait....oh, never mind!!
Actually Boon, it's called being truthfull.
If you think there are ANY absolutes in weather forecasting. I got a bridge I'll sell you.
The answer was not meant to be a cop out, but rather show just some of the different variables involved and the uncertainty of seasonal forecasting.
I find too many in my profession pretend that there are absolutes, or at least will give a forecast that is full of uncertainty- yet give the perception that confidence is high. All of my customers love the fact that I not only give a forecast, but will then go on to give a confidence level. Both are very important to them.
-John
If you think there are ANY absolutes in weather forecasting. I got a bridge I'll sell you.
The answer was not meant to be a cop out, but rather show just some of the different variables involved and the uncertainty of seasonal forecasting.
I find too many in my profession pretend that there are absolutes, or at least will give a forecast that is full of uncertainty- yet give the perception that confidence is high. All of my customers love the fact that I not only give a forecast, but will then go on to give a confidence level. Both are very important to them.
-John
booondocker
New member
Whoa....easy...just a little light huuumor, my man....not trying to raise blood pressures, or do anything other than give a grin....
Sled Solutions
Member
We love it!! Honesty is better than deception when it comes to the potential for snow. Snowmobilers can only take so much "highs and lows" in a short amount of time. Nothing worse then planning a trip around a "forecast" that was pitched as being a FOR SURE thing and not have it happen. Emotionally this has to be one of the hardest sports to LOVE!
"OMG...we're going to get hammered" ----> JOY
next day
"Looks like it's not going to happen now"--------> Depression
Day 3
"It's back on" ----> JOY
Day 4
"Still on" -----> More JOY
Day 5 (leaving for the trip)
"Not looking good anymore" ----->What do you? You were so pumped about the weather and forecasted snow and now it might not happen. Your loaded, been on an adrenaline high for 2 days expecting an EPIC ride and at the point of leaving it is up in the air.
John's honesty helps dull the "ups and downs". Just knowing that there is a potential for snow is enough for most of us. Holding him to his forecast is like asking a politician to be honest....can't do it.
I'll keep following John and I understand why he does what he does and many of us appreciate it. He may not be right all the time but he has our best interests in mind.
Keep up the great work John!!!
This above statement i think is why your site is so popular also.
G
G
Guest
Just got back from a wheatgrower's meeting. If I get in trouble for posting someone else's forecast just kick my post off. I am not trying to make anybody mad here, especially John Dees. Keep in mind this is the forecast for Northern Mn. They are calling for the rest of Dec. to be cold with snow. Jan. will be warm with no snow. Feb will be cold again but without snow. March will be warm and lots of snow. Have no idea if this is an El Nino pattern or not. Doesn't sound to encouraging. Might be trailering over to your playgrounds in Mich a little more than normal.
snow_monkey
New member
I'm with John that you can never be sure. Local news in Northwest Michigan reported that their prediction was in and that we would be subject to above average lake effect snow this winter in the primary snow belts!!!
deerhunter
New member
i dont watch local weather anymore. its all about a competition from one channel to the next. if one says big snows coming and one says not much but a few inches, people are going to pay attention to the channel thats says big snows are coming in 3 days( example of the last big storm that just came thru). i like how john hints that something might be coming but only says its to far out to call and dont make a decision right away on whats going to happen. he knowws how it feels to get a guys hopes up a week in advance. dont get that from the local channels. there about ratings than facts.
my wife now checks on here than watch local weather. thanks for the service you provide us with
mike
my wife now checks on here than watch local weather. thanks for the service you provide us with
mike