Is winter 2011/2012 over john?

[NW Iowa]

Hi John,
I live in the northwest corner of Iowa. So far this year we have really only had two weeks of winter, otherwise it has been like a long fall. Does it look like to you that this winter is a lost cause, like all we will see from here on out is a 30-45 degree roller coaster with little frostings of snow now and then, or is it possible that we may actually see a 3-4 week winter starting one of these days? I guess I am just curious what the remainder outlook is currently looking like as far as temps and precip? Thanks

 

[brooks]

Kiss winter goodbye and prepare for a long summer. Nothing in the 10 day forecast, by feb 15 the suns so strong you don't need to push your banks back anymore. To establish a base, then get snow on top of it to play in is unlikely.

 

[punchtech2]

I agree, winter for sledding for most areas will never even get started, just have to wonder why all the "experts" put out long range forecasts, pretty useless in my opinion, bugs me even worse when the hurricane experts predict the hurricane season 8 months in advance which causes the gas prices to spike due to speculation that there might be disruptions in the gulf.

 

[jd]

I'm predicting March 20th. Ahh, the Bill Murray line, got to love him.

Anyway, the honest answer is I have no clue and neither does anyone else- no matter what they say. However, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on MOTS (more of the same). Which means the further south you go in the Midwest, the less time you have to get any kind of prolonged period of playing in the snow (if it were to decide to even fall).

I guess if one silver lining can come out of this winter it's that maybe when go out of my way to say any seasonal forecast is a complete shot in the dark and should not be taking with much seriousness, folks will heed that advice. I'm not holding my breath though, I have been saying that for as long as I have been putting out a seasonal outlook and come autumn, I still get bombarded with requests to do one.

-John

 

[dab102999]

John,

Maybe you should just start putting out an early forcast that says "This winter is gunna suck" every year John....that way people can be pissed early and get over it...if it don't snow...well then you will be right....and if it does snow no one will be upset either...win win for John....


No matter what they say it is mother nature and she will do her own thing...Always injoy reading your long range forcast but I also always remember what you write in your "soapbox" speech and take it with a grain of salt....cus no matter what on the short and short of it your forcast are usually if not always correct for my area...and you usually have everyone else beat by at least a day or two..

 

[bbgun]

I'm predicting March 20th. Ahh, the Bill Murray line, got to love him.

Anyway, the honest answer is I have no clue and neither does anyone else- no matter what they say. However, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on MOTS (more of the same). Which means the further south you go in the Midwest, the less time you have to get any kind of prolonged period of playing in the snow (if it were to decide to even fall).

I guess if one silver lining can come out of this winter it's that maybe when go out of my way to say any seasonal forecast is a complete shot in the dark and should not be taking with much seriousness, folks will heed that advice. I'm not holding my breath though, I have been saying that for as long as I have been putting out a seasonal outlook and come autumn, I still get bombarded with requests to do one.

-John

It appears it all about the jet stream? What drives it? Its supper cold in alaska and Europe?

 

[jd]

It is all about the jetstream. What drives it is the principles of statics, dynamics and thermodynamics. The computer guidance does a fairly good job at predicting the jetstream out a few days, but then the errors start to pile up and can make forecasts for the jetstream and other atmospheric variables unreliable. So most of the skill in the models starts to run out after day 7 or so. Sometimes sooner, sometimes later.

-John

 

[punchtech2]

Do you think with technology moving as fast as it has the last 20 years the forecasting has suffered a little due to forecasters relying on computer models more and putting less man-hours\personal knowledge and skill into their predictions. I will say you can definately tell you still put a lot of time into your forecasts as they don't flip flop
daily like the Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc..

 

[jd]

Do you think with technology moving as fast as it has the last 20 years the forecasting has suffered a little due to forecasters relying on computer models more and putting less man-hours\personal knowledge and skill into their predictions. I will say you can definately tell you still put a lot of time into your forecasts as they don't flip flop
daily like the Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc..

That could certainly be true. I don't follow a lot of other forecasts, but from time to time I catch wind of some major flip flopping going on and it would appear that there is more "model regurgitation" being done than actual meteorology work.

-John

 

[attack_06]

That could certainly be true. I don't follow a lot of other forecasts, but from time to time I catch wind of some major flip flopping going on and it would appear that there is more "model regurgitation" being done than actual meteorology work.

-John

You mean the forecasters are throwing up lol

 

[indybru]

Hi John,

I was wondering what went wrong this year with winter in the continental U.S? It looks like your saying the jetstream.

Alaska, is having a big winter, appartently so is Europe, snow in Rome, Japan and sub zero temps is eastern europe.

Why do they get all the fun? The weatherpeople in Chicago said this winter was going to be a doosey, I was thinking cold and snow, maybe they meant you can golf year round, and jog in your shorts.

bruce

 

[jd]

Hi John,

I was wondering what went wrong this year with winter in the continental U.S? It looks like your saying the jetstream.

Alaska, is having a big winter, appartently so is Europe, snow in Rome, Japan and sub zero temps is eastern europe.

Why do they get all the fun? The weatherpeople in Chicago said this winter was going to be a doosey, I was thinking cold and snow, maybe they meant you can golf year round, and jog in your shorts.

bruce

While we know quite a bit about what makes the jetstream do it's thing in the next week or so, we do not know why it likes to repeat itself or even stay stuck in the same position for extended periods of time and create the weather anomalies seen for weeks or months at at time.

-John