John, Does this make any sense??
- Thread starter clark_w
- Start date
Well, I have problems with a couple of things said. First, I do not know of any locale in the "eastern" parts of the US that dropped to 50 below. For many states east of the MS River, that would have been an all time record. Perhaps with wind chill, but not straight air temperature.
Secondly, there are actually some signs that La Nina may make a return for the winter of 2011-12, rather than ENSO Neutral conditions (not a big sticking point with me).
Third, the statement: "Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. is just not true. Less air rises in the central Pacific in the vicinity of the Equator than usual, but more rises in the eastern Pacific in the vicinity of the Equator than usual. Plus, rising air does not automatically warm the atmosphere. Air expands and cools as it rises. In fact, rising air containing a lot of moisture can actually have a cooling effect in some cases. So I have a real problem with that statement.
Forth, "[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges." [/FONT]Is not a statement that can be proved, at least to the point where you can call is a PRIMARY driver, although it likely does have an influence in cycles that occur in weather.
With all that said, I have absolutely no way to prove their forecast will be wrong. So I guess we will both hope it comes true!
-John
Secondly, there are actually some signs that La Nina may make a return for the winter of 2011-12, rather than ENSO Neutral conditions (not a big sticking point with me).
Third, the statement: "Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. is just not true. Less air rises in the central Pacific in the vicinity of the Equator than usual, but more rises in the eastern Pacific in the vicinity of the Equator than usual. Plus, rising air does not automatically warm the atmosphere. Air expands and cools as it rises. In fact, rising air containing a lot of moisture can actually have a cooling effect in some cases. So I have a real problem with that statement.
Forth, "[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges." [/FONT]Is not a statement that can be proved, at least to the point where you can call is a PRIMARY driver, although it likely does have an influence in cycles that occur in weather.
With all that said, I have absolutely no way to prove their forecast will be wrong. So I guess we will both hope it comes true!
-John