John what the HECK is going on?
- Thread starter mattus
- Start date
Well, I guess this would be a perfect time to point out my opinions on the trustworthiness of any forecast that goes out beyond 10-14 days.
Each autumn I RELUCTANTLY put out a seasonal outlook. I say reluctantly because I just do not have much faith in it, but do it because so many ask for it. At the beginning of each of those forecasts, I go out of my way to say that persons should not put much hope into a seasonal prediction. If fact, I have even made my "Soap Box Speech on Seasonal Weather Forecasting" available for as long as I have done a seasonal outlook. If persons have not yet actually read the text part of my seasonal outlook, I suggest you do and also check out the link to the soap box speech and pay particular attention to the part in the soap box speech where I say: "ALL SEASONAL FORECASTS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT OR EVEN A BIT OF HUMOR."
Now, please, please, please do not get the idea that I am angry or picking on you at all! I am very serious when I say that I think way too many folks put way too much faith into a seasonal outlook- including my own. They should practically be outlawed until they are worth even producing.
For what it's worth, I did think that this season would get off to a slow start. I thought things could be slow into early December, so it's only what has happened in the past 10 days is only a big surprise to me (as is what looks to happen in the next 10).
Perhaps as we get into the new year, there will be a big change in the pattern that will get the snows going across at least portions of the Midwest. There are some hints of that in the 11-16 day period, but I also caution folks about putting too much faith in what is seen in the 11-16 day period. I have more faith in that time frame than in the seasonal scale, but much less than I have in the next 7 days.
Also, for what it's worth. Should this current setup we have now keep going for much of the winter, my seasonal outlook would totally bomb, but quite honestly, for areas of the central Midwest last year it missed the mark too, but we ended up with MORE snow in those areas than I thought, not less. I guess a bombed forecast can be forgiven/forgotten when we like the results of what the weather gave us rather than dislike it!
Keep the faith. It's still pretty early in the season to be throwing in the towel. Some folks may argue, but we have been in this boat before.
-John
Each autumn I RELUCTANTLY put out a seasonal outlook. I say reluctantly because I just do not have much faith in it, but do it because so many ask for it. At the beginning of each of those forecasts, I go out of my way to say that persons should not put much hope into a seasonal prediction. If fact, I have even made my "Soap Box Speech on Seasonal Weather Forecasting" available for as long as I have done a seasonal outlook. If persons have not yet actually read the text part of my seasonal outlook, I suggest you do and also check out the link to the soap box speech and pay particular attention to the part in the soap box speech where I say: "ALL SEASONAL FORECASTS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT OR EVEN A BIT OF HUMOR."
Now, please, please, please do not get the idea that I am angry or picking on you at all! I am very serious when I say that I think way too many folks put way too much faith into a seasonal outlook- including my own. They should practically be outlawed until they are worth even producing.
For what it's worth, I did think that this season would get off to a slow start. I thought things could be slow into early December, so it's only what has happened in the past 10 days is only a big surprise to me (as is what looks to happen in the next 10).
Perhaps as we get into the new year, there will be a big change in the pattern that will get the snows going across at least portions of the Midwest. There are some hints of that in the 11-16 day period, but I also caution folks about putting too much faith in what is seen in the 11-16 day period. I have more faith in that time frame than in the seasonal scale, but much less than I have in the next 7 days.
Also, for what it's worth. Should this current setup we have now keep going for much of the winter, my seasonal outlook would totally bomb, but quite honestly, for areas of the central Midwest last year it missed the mark too, but we ended up with MORE snow in those areas than I thought, not less. I guess a bombed forecast can be forgiven/forgotten when we like the results of what the weather gave us rather than dislike it!
Keep the faith. It's still pretty early in the season to be throwing in the towel. Some folks may argue, but we have been in this boat before.
-John
John has always been clear that at best the seasonal forecast is a guess but has been nice enough to humor us riders who want every bit of inormation we can about the snow. I am hoping we get a "flip" and enter a wintry pattern for the rest of the year.
John - without question your snow forecasts are the best out there - often a day or two ahead of the local news guys. Keep up the great work!
John - without question your snow forecasts are the best out there - often a day or two ahead of the local news guys. Keep up the great work!