Lack of Snow in Newberry

deepsnow67

New member
I was just wondering if there was anything worth discussing around the lack of snow in Newberry. It seems as if there has been a lot of lake effect snow occurring but we have some of the lowest snow levels in the state. In addition to monitoring Johndee.com, I frequently check NWS, intellicast, and Ontario weather (for the TASA area). I have been noticing that predictions of snow are almost completely unrealized. Whenever I see anything predicted, even when I look at the radar and it seems like everything is in place to be delivering snow, nothing falls or activity is so light, no significant accumulation occurs.

It just seems like the couple years have been this way...where for some reason, snow is falling in many surrounding areas, but not here in Newberry (on M-28). I moved to Newberry from downstate anticipating what I had experience for approximately 10 years of snowmobiling in the area.

I am looking for a rather technical discussion, not generalized comments about lake effect being isolated. Maybe there have been some attributes present in the lake effect snow events that I could understand better to explain why we just aren't getting any snow when it seems like favorable conditions have existed and well developed lake effect snows seem to appear on radar and satellite scans (and do produce significant amounts in some areas).

I am aware that Newberry is probably in the southern 1/2 of the Superior Lake Effect area and as such, typically experiences reduced totals...but normally, localized predictions do take that into account for our area.
 

michaeladams

New member
johns a little backed up right now.he has a lot of requests for snow out there already.i am still waiting for my foot of snow, so get in line.lol
 

deepsnow67

New member
I know where all the snow went now...I read his journal! 45 inches in the Keewenaw. It's nice to share you know! LOL! I saw his picture of what 45 inches of snow looks like too. I have a picture of what 2 inches of snow looks like at my house. I would have been happy with a tenth of the Keewenaw total (4 - 5 inches) last week. ;)
 

cmharcou

Member
When the day comes and I can hang up the hat and work gloves, my secluded cabin will be deep in the western up in the Keeweenaw or Lake Gogebic area. Most of the central UP seems to miss the deep snow and riding through swamps. I've been struck on trail in swamp land a time or too.
 

jd

Administrator
Staff member
deepsnow67-

Part of the answer lies in your expectations. While 10 years worth of winter data may seem suitable to base a judgment on, it really is too small a time frame for you to be accurately producing a climate record for a locale. I met someone a few years back that also moved to a particular locale in the UP based on several years of going to the spot and seeing good snows. So far that spot is also down on snow- especially compared to the early 2000's when he observed the snows.

30 years of observations are really a better number.

With that said, the winds pretty much exclusively determine where the LES will fall. Other factors determine how much and for how long. So far this season, the winds during LES event have not been in the favorable position for the Newberry area (a wind that is just west of NW). This last event even had winds out of the NE for much of the eastern UP for much of the event, which is why you did not receive as much as other locales.

So I guess the bottom line is that your observations in that roughly 10 year period likely gave a somewhat false representation of how much snow falls there on average. That combined with the past few years just not being as favorable for LES in your neck of the woods has amplified things even more.

-John
 

dafalls

Member
I know where all the snow went now...I read his journal! 45 inches in the Keewenaw. It's nice to share you know! LOL! I saw his picture of what 45 inches of snow looks like too. I have a picture of what 2 inches of snow looks like at my house. I would have been happy with a tenth of the Keewenaw total (4 - 5 inches) last week. ;)

My fault, bought a new sled this year!
 
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