Actually, the cold season is the draw down season for the lake- historically anyway. With it being so cold and also so much ice in the lake this season, that will lower the amount of evaporation and thus lowering that takes place during the cold season. Plus there has been a fairly decent amount of system snow in the drainage basin this winter, so the typical spring bounce might have a bit more spring to it, but late spriing, all of summer and early autumn precip really determines the lake level.
-John