maasman-
The western 1/2 of the lake is about 80% ice covered and that is significantly reducing the LES formation. However, it has not shut it down completely as was evidenced by the LES that fell in the western UP over the weekend.
The outlook for the ice to melt and return the western UP into a setup where big LES dumps will occur is slim. In fact, it should be something you do not wish for because the same weather conditions that would melt the ice will also melt the snow over land.
The silver lining is that as we head through March, our historical reliance on LES for snow drops off. March is not a big LES month, yet we still do pretty good for snow. This is because the storm track starts to work back north and impacts us more directly with the spring storms and the snow they have on their north side.
So I guess in a nutshell I would not count on a lot of LES for the rest of this season, but some. Plus winter weather (including snows and the potential for heavy snow) is not over for the season yet either.
-John