LES Forecast / NWS - Jan 07-Jan 08, 2020

[Bullitt69]

Hi John,

I realize we're not supposed to ask specific forecast questions, this is more of a "what happened" inquiry.

As you can see in the NWS Marquette tweet yesterday, (see pic) they we're calling for U.P. Snowbelts to get a decent amount of snow overnight Tuesday thru Wednesday.

Last check on my cabin cam and maybe 2 inches? (my place is underneath the "8" in Grand Marais and the Alger county line, i.e. 8-10 inches forecast.

Overzealous forecasting team perhaps? Seems NWS is often "Fat Fingering" our totals, at least from my experience the last few years following them.

Duly noted, you we're spot on with 1-4 inches a few days ago.

Appreciate any feedback,

-Bullitt-

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lake effect snow will increase in the northwest wind snow belts today and tonight. Also, expect areas of blowing snow to develop. Be prepared for difficult travel in the areas impacted by lake effect snow later today, through tonight and into Wed morning. <a href="https://t.co/tgw98FSLXr">pic.twitter.com/tgw98FSLXr</a></p>— NWS Marquette (@NWSMarquette) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSMarquette/status/1214518003078819840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2020</a></blockquote>
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[Admin]

Not to bad mouth the NWS Marquette, because they do a good job with things, but I have to say I was a bit perplexed on why they were so aggressive with the forecasted snow for yesterday and last night. It just did not look like the type of system to produce more than around 1-4" for the most part.

LES is a very difficult thing to forecast (probably the hardest thing in weather) and mother nature will make up for it by giving us double what we were expecting sometime in the future!

-John

 

[Skylar]

What I have learned over the years from reading the NWS forecasts, and John's, if both John and the NWS are saying the same, we're golden. If they are different, I believe John's, even if I dont want to, because his calls for less. Lol.

 

[Bullitt69]

Not to bad mouth the NWS Marquette, because they do a good job with things, but I have to say I was a bit perplexed on why they were so aggressive with the forecasted snow for yesterday and last night. It just did not look like the type of system to produce more than around 1-4" for the most part.

LES is a very difficult thing to forecast (probably the hardest thing in weather) and mother nature will make up for it by giving us double what we were expecting sometime in the future!

-John

John, Yes - I've heard LES is difficult to predict, and have also heard other folks say the same - it's the most challenging!

I keep kidding my wife/daughter that it's waiting for our return up there, which starts tomorrow - taking the Suz back to school....

Late weekend, next week looks promising!

Thanks John (and Skylar!)