Lezak's Recurring Cycle?
- Thread starter regionrat
- Start date
To tell you the honest truth, I had to google it to read about it. I had never heard of it.
I can say that there is some repetitive nature to the weather, but no two weather systems are ever the same and sometimes patterns created early in a season do not carry through.
For example, December of 2009 was quite snowy up here, we got 82" of snow. There were several system snows and quite a few LES events. This setup was not repeated the rest of the season as our January-April snowfall was the least we have ever seen.
The bottom line is there are no magic bullets when it comes to seasonal weather forecasting. Most things being touted like that are like the latest diet craze. Lots of promises, but never really deliver to their promised potential. The proof of that is, if there really were a magic bullet to be used, everyone would be using it and seasonal forecasts would be a ton more accurate than they are now. Just like if there really were a diet plan that really worked as promised, we all would be our ideal weight.
-John
I can say that there is some repetitive nature to the weather, but no two weather systems are ever the same and sometimes patterns created early in a season do not carry through.
For example, December of 2009 was quite snowy up here, we got 82" of snow. There were several system snows and quite a few LES events. This setup was not repeated the rest of the season as our January-April snowfall was the least we have ever seen.
The bottom line is there are no magic bullets when it comes to seasonal weather forecasting. Most things being touted like that are like the latest diet craze. Lots of promises, but never really deliver to their promised potential. The proof of that is, if there really were a magic bullet to be used, everyone would be using it and seasonal forecasts would be a ton more accurate than they are now. Just like if there really were a diet plan that really worked as promised, we all would be our ideal weight.
-John
Butterfly effect!
Ahh, the Butterfly effect still holds for complex systems, such as global weather phenomena and attempts to develop mathematical models therefor.
We don't necessarily have a handle on all of the variables involved, never mind the problem of what to use for the initial conditions (starting atmospheric conditions).
Lezak's Recurring Cycle is just a crude oversimplification of an extremely complex system.
Compare this to Edward Lorenz' experience with his weather prediction model circa 1961, as noted in the above link.
(See also: Chaos theory.)
Ahh, the Butterfly effect still holds for complex systems, such as global weather phenomena and attempts to develop mathematical models therefor.
We don't necessarily have a handle on all of the variables involved, never mind the problem of what to use for the initial conditions (starting atmospheric conditions).
Lezak's Recurring Cycle is just a crude oversimplification of an extremely complex system.
Compare this to Edward Lorenz' experience with his weather prediction model circa 1961, as noted in the above link.
(See also: Chaos theory.)
When searching the LRC on the Internet this thread comes up. So I wanted to link a few resources for the LRC. Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is a powerful tool when forecasting long or short range. The cycle exists and it is fascinating. Two great sources are linked below.
http://lrcweather.com/
http://weatherwatch12.wordpress.com/
It's catching on like wild fire these days. Many other cities have forecast teams using the LRC. I've done my own research this past year as well. http://osnw3.blogspot.com/
I hope some of you check into it and try to learn more about it.
http://lrcweather.com/
http://weatherwatch12.wordpress.com/
It's catching on like wild fire these days. Many other cities have forecast teams using the LRC. I've done my own research this past year as well. http://osnw3.blogspot.com/
I hope some of you check into it and try to learn more about it.