Has winter finally arrived to Wisconsin? looks like the next week could be quite favorable for pretty much the entire state! Lets hope its here to stay for a while as the industry NEEDS IT! Also nice to see consistent pink/purple in the Kee on John's 5 to 10 day potential forecast, may not get it all but will keep snow refreshed on the trails. A month late but I hope its here to stay!
looking good!
- Thread starter euphoric1
- Start date
It brings dreams of sugar plums and riding from my house in Green Bay to the U.P. dancing in my head.
I always say "if the Green Bay trails are not open by Super Bowl Sunday, they ain't opening". Haven't been wrong in like 18 years.
Bear
That will save miles on that Ram, eh?
D
Deleted member 10829
Guest
I agree slimcake! All forecasts I follow were calling for 4-8" here, and some more than that. We got about 1". Another swing and a miss!
ICT Sledder
Active member
I would LOVE to see a nationwide study on the outcomes of meteorological predictions on snowfall amounts. As in model prediction versus reality as it relates to the under and over. I can barely recall a snowstorm where X was predicted, but X+1 (or 2, or 3, or...) actually fell. Overwhelmingly it is X a few days out, then X-whatever as it gets closer, and then X-whatever-more when it actually happens.
I guess I’m just trying to say, why do models overestimate so badly, and why logically aren’t there an equal distribution of underestimations to balance it out?
I guess I’m just trying to say, why do models overestimate so badly, and why logically aren’t there an equal distribution of underestimations to balance it out?
eagle1
Well-known member
I agree, but the one snow event we had this year, they were predicting 2-4" and we received 5.5 at my house. I think, but I am not a trained weatherman, we picked up the little extra from Lake effect, as the lake I live on was still open. But otherwise, often disappointed in what we get, versus what we were told (and if thinking of Michael Scott - "That's what she said".
We were supposed to see the least, as racine and Kenosha weren't even in the winter storm area which struck me as kind of odd how 2 counties were left out and here we are... I think they said we were in the bullseye of it, I agree on some comments made about weather predicting, but you know what... I like it when they are wrong...IN MY FAVOR!! Kudos to the winter fest staff here in Da Grove as they finally got a year with rideable snow, I hope they will have a HUGE turnout as a lot of pre goes into putting this on and its about time the weather is on their side this time. Now we only have to hope it stays COLD !!
skidoodoug
Member
IMO, we (winter enthusiasts) are the only ones that would see their over prediction/under developed forecast as a negative. I feel they may "error" on the side of over hype, that way when the predicted 10 inches comes in at 5, most of the general public do not care. But, on the contrast, if they guessed 3" and it snowed 6, it would be view as a complete failure of the weatherman. Like I said, JMO.
toddspolaris
Member
The government pays them so in order to get the economy going, which it does, people go out and buy lots of food, snowblowers etc, somebody is thinking
snobuilder
Well-known member
Happy, happy, joy, joy or "joynt" for some a youse….LOL