Low budget Ag forecast for Red River Valley

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Guest
I am located in farm country. Every spring there are farm meetings with local high profile weather forecasters from around the region to try to give the farmers some idea of what to expect in the coming growing season. This year they are all across the board on their predictions. Perhaps because they have missed for the last 2 or three years. Whatever. It is an inexact science with many variables. The snow is just about gone here and the rivers are mostly open and running. For the first time in about ten years we are not going to have the mighty Red River rise up and give us a month of misery. The land is all in good shape and ready to go because we had such a nice fall and there was time to get everything prepared and ready. Some of the farmers are talking about planting wheat the first of April. The potential is there for a banner farming year. Anyway - what is your best guess for our region for the next 6 months? Or do we just have to watch the jet stream and see if it ever returns to a more normal pattern? It is supposed to reach 70 here today which is not even close to normal for this time of year. Nobody is complaining except a few of us vanquished snowmobilers but it all seems a bit premature. Thanks. Tom.
 
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frnash

Active member
grub said:
I am located in farm country. Every spring there are farm meetings with local high profile weather forecasters from around the region to try to give the farmers some idea of what to expect in the coming growing season. This year they are all across the board on their predictions. Perhaps because they have missed for the last 2 or three years. …
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Gee, I just happen to know where you (or perhaps a group of local farmers) could hire a private agricultural meteorologist that specializes in exactly that kind of forecasting.
As noted in a recent news article, at (click→) The Upper Peninsula Second Wave. quoted here in part:
"He produces forecasts that span the entire globe--wherever grain, wheat, soybeans or other agricultural goods are grown."
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I'll betcha he can do a much better job of it than those "local high profile weather forecasters"! :)
 
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Guest
I know Nash. I never realized where John made his Money before he was recognized in the news. Good for him. Just fishing. More than anything I want to know if I should trade lawnmowers or not. I could go for a good draught after the summers we have been having lately. The farmers will get paid regardless. Still 64 degrees here at 8:34. Got to 80 today. Unreal.
 
jd

jd

Administrator
Staff member
Grub-

I do produce custom forecasts for the northern Plains as well as just about anywhere else in the world crops are grown. With regards to a seasonal outlook, there is no difference in the reliability of the for the growing season when compared to the snow season and I think we all know how well the seasonal outlooks and forecasts did for this past snow season!

So no matter how "high profile" the weather forecasters were that gave their seasonal outlooks, take them with a grain of salt.

-John
 
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