NOAA Forecast Discussion

[arcticgeorge]

Hi John i found this interesting that they referred to December 10-11 1980 for some reason. Are they compairing our current weather with the 1980 weather? Here is the text...............................................
LOOKING AT CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...THE BEST FIT FOR THIS PERIOD IS
THE DECEMBER 10-11 1980 PERIOD...WHICH CORRELATES VERY WELL IN
H850 TEMPS ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BE
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE CWA. 72-HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT
PERIOD WERE GENERALLY IN THE 4-12 INCH RANGE...WHICH LENDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE GOING FORECAST THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT
PROBABILITIES FROM THE TOP 15 ANALOGS THEY SHOW A SIMILAR IDEA
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN THOUGH THE MEAN H850 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MODERATE
SNOW IN THE HWO...SINCE SOME LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NEED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES...DUE TO ADDITIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
THE FINER SNOWFLAKES AND SOME BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT
COOP TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS DURING THAT 1980 EVENING...THE GOING
IDEA OF HIGHS OF 10-15 AND LOWS AROUND ZERO LOOKS GOOD.

 

[jd]

Yep, that is the way I read it.

CIPS analog guidance? Geeze, how many other neat tools do these guys have? Here I am forecasting by the seat of my pants!

PS, you do realize they are talking about the snow belts of eastern Alger and Luce counties with this write up, right?

-John

 

[arcticgeorge]

LOL....Yes on the counties,I search first with my zip code but the discussion still includes the rest of the UP. I read it several times so i can be sure of the details. I find it facinating with all that meteorologist lingo. Thanks for the new graphic map today, a gift on my birthday! Getting ready to "Fire'm up!"

 

[frosty]

Who you kidding John, we all know you got like a mini NORAD in your back room. Tied in to every weather and gps satelittle that circles this blue marble.