Out West Weather conditions!

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shawn_mcgregor

New member
Hello John,

In your Journal you spoke about a shift in the weather pattern this weekend out west

"For those of you heading out west, things have been kind of quiet lately, but by the weekend that could change. Potentially in a very big way for areas like CO, WY, southern ID and northern UT"

We have a trip planned to ride Dec 14th-18th at Togwotee, but are debating if we should postpone it. The have a base just need more fresh. Could you enlighten me on the what you are seeing come this weekend.

Thanks
Shawn
 
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admin

Guest
Shawn-

I typically do not answer specific forecast questions in the Ask John, but I am sure that you are not the only one planning to head out west in the coming weeks, so will make an exception.

It looks like an upper air trough will be digging into the western US by the weekend and continue into early next week. This looks to support a multi-day snow event for much of the central and northern Rockies, the Togwotee area being included. Way too far out to be trying to nail down exact amounts, but if things pan out as currently indicated, feet of snow would fall in the mountains.

So I guess the main question is do you want to be there when it happens?
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I will add that things have been relatively quiet lately and that has developed some crust on the snowpack. A large dumping on top of that will create extreme avalanche danger. The only hope would be for the first of the new snows to fall as the wet and sticky kind, but that is pretty rare in the interior mountains.

-John
 
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admin

Guest
Scott.

Not quiet sure I agree that the cold in CA will be a 50 year event, plus not sure what the guy that said: "Temperatures in Siberia, Russia will be -81 degrees this week, with those type of temperatures the arctic air mass has to spill somewhere". I would asky him why they need to go anywhere. It is not like cold air can only take up so much room!

Anyway, it will be cold in the west early next week and that will actually turn the jetstream out of the SW across the nations mid section. So temps in the Midwest will actually be warmer than they have been recently, especially the further east you go.

When CA gets cold, the Midwest gets warm, when CA is warmer than average, the Midwest typically is cold.

-John
 
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shawn_mcgregor

New member
Hey John,

I am sorry I asked a forecast specific in the ASK JOHN area.

I really appreciate the feedback and will be heading out to Togwotee on Saturday!!!

Prey for a dump... we will take pictures
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Cheers
Shawn
 
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shawn_mcgregor

New member
John,

It looks like the snow is going to hit somewhere out there Sat - Mon. From your expertise is Togwotee still looking good?

NOAA all ready has a weather alert for the area for Sat - Mon which to me is a good sign.

Let me know your thoughts. Cooke and Horns outlook is still using the verbiage of "uncertainty", Togwotee is using "may", and Snowies is using "will". I don't know if my logic there has any validity.

Togwotee Pass Area
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ALL WEEK ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

Thank you VERY much John

Shawn
 
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admin

Guest
Multi-day storm still a go Shawn.

Just be advised that in addition to lots of snow (1-3 feet in the mountains), lots of wind too.

-John
 
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admin

Guest
Have a safe and fun trip Shawn. Be on the extra look out for Avy's!

-John
 
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shawn_mcgregor

New member
We will!!!

Is the bulk of that system looking to stay more North than originally anticipated? Or is Togwotee going to get the back end or something. Thanks John and sorry for pulling up the same subject but I am sure you understand
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Braaap

Cheers
Shawn
 
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admin

Guest
It looks like the US/Canadian border area will be hit the hardest with the snows, but the mountains of the northern 1/2 of the Rockies (including around Togwotee) will do fine too. I am guessing 1-2' or possibly more. Keep in mind it is a multi-day event. Starts Saturday and will go off and on through late Monday or early Tuesday, with snow showers off and on through the rest of the week as well.

-John
 
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shawn_mcgregor

New member
Ok good...I thought it was looking that way, but wasn't sure. This morning when I woke up N.W.S had Weather statements for ID, MT, Northern CO, UT, ND, SD and Eastern WY... but nothing on Western WY... and I was like how does this happen!!! I swear the system shifted while I prayed to the snow gods on my 25 min drive into the office... Fewwwwwwwwwwww and they now have special weather statements for Western WY. My heart almost sunk!

Thanks John

Will take pictures
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