Really good weather news released today....regarding next WINTER

[attakman]

While this Winter and Snowmobile season were a complete loss, and absolutely depressing this year....there are signs that the weather pattern is about to change and next Winter could be epic!!!...According to scientists at the US Climate Prediction Center... El Nino is dissipating, and slowly will be transitioning to a LA NINA by August....Also Ocean temperature changes predicted to start during spring could ‘significantly’ increase the risk of severe weather in the US this summer. (Especially here in the Midwest)

Meteorologists have in the past week confirmed a La Nina transition from El Nino is almost certain from next month on.
An unusually powerful El-Nino warming of ocean waters around South America, which set in last year, is expected to end next month.
The US Climate Prediction Centre has issued an ‘El Nino Advisory’ and ‘La Nina Watch’ stating a transition to La Nina is possible before August.

This could mean epic snows, and much colder weather for our riding season next winter, depending on the strength and the length of the La Nina.

We'll have to watch this as we a roll through summer into fall....but it's at least giving us some hope for next winter...La Nina's have typically been very good for us snowmobilers in the upper Midwest (Minnesota, Dakotas, Michigan and Wisconsin)

Fingers crossed!!!

 

[hermie]

Here's to hoping. As Kyle from Slo's told me Saturday look at the bright side no way can next winter be any worse than this one. I couldn't argue with that. If trails only open for 1 days it beats this winter.

 

[jr37]

I don't put much faith in a 10 day forecast, much less 10 months from now. But, either way, it's got to be better than this winter.

 

[ohiosledder]

There's always hope. The bright side is it can't get much worse than this winter.

 

[euphoric1]

Lets hope so for every business, every economy and every person who relies on the weather and the seasons either directly or indirectly.

 

[CrossfireLOW]

Strong El Nino equals terrible winter for upper Midwest. La Ninas on the other hand are more of a crapshoot, some good years and some terrible ones. There is some history of strong La Ninas being as bad as strong el ninos for the midwest.

Unlike the west. Out west there are some pretty good analogs for La Ninas following a strong/moderate el ninos that turned out to be epic snow years there (2016-17, 2010-11, and 1998-99).

 

[attakman]

Strong El Nino equals terrible winter for upper Midwest. La Ninas on the other hand are more of a crapshoot, some good years and some terrible ones. There is some history of strong La Ninas being as bad as strong el ninos for the midwest.

Unlike the west. Out west there are some pretty good analogs for La Ninas following a strong/moderate el ninos that turned out to be epic snow years there (2016-17, 2010-11, and 1998-99).

That can be true...however 2022-23 was a moderate La Nina, and here in northern Wisconsin it was a really good season...though we did start a week later than we had planned (new years weekend we opened)

 

[hermie]

Strong El Nino equals terrible winter for upper Midwest. La Ninas on the other hand are more of a crapshoot, some good years and some terrible ones. There is some history of strong La Ninas being as bad as strong el ninos for the midwest.

Unlike the west. Out west there are some pretty good analogs for La Ninas following a strong/moderate el ninos that turned out to be epic snow years there (2016-17, 2010-11, and 1998-99).

Wow Attackman is trying to come in here and give us a positive vibe for next season, which most of can use after this crap winter and you got to try and ruin it with this negativity.LOl. I am going to hope for a stellar season. Not counting eggs before they hatch and will start really looking at the trends for next winter come end of October when we have a better idea how strong La Nina is and where it has setup. In the meantime I am looking forward to next winter and putting some miles in and enjoying being out on the trails again. There is something about winter that I just love. The cold crisp fresh air, trees flocked with snow. The creeks running with the ice on the edges and snow on the banks the smiles on people's face out there on their sleds, can't wait.

 

[Skylar]

No way can next winter be the same as this year, I won't allow it.

 

[toddspolaris]

Don’t want yo be negative, but surely don’t want to have high hopes for the next 10 months for a stellar winter to come, they have a hard time of predicting 1 week, so I just take it few days at a time, but I would agree, NO 2 winters are the same, only has to be better, but who knows

 

[goofy600]

Honestly they are usually better on the long range than the short, because it is more basic, they aren’t trying to get it exact just somewhat of an accurate picture. When it gets closer to the actual storm they can’t even get anything close.

 

[JimAndros]

I tend to agree they typically blow short range forecasts but this season most of the short range was quite accurate in Waushara County.

 

[pclark]

We’ll see what next November brings to the Northwoods. This year was certainly a year for the record books. I’m optimistic!

 

[CrossfireLOW]

Wow Attackman is trying to come in here and give us a positive vibe for next season, which most of can use after this crap winter and you got to try and ruin it with this negativity.LOl. I am going to hope for a stellar season. Not counting eggs before they hatch and will start really looking at the trends for next winter come end of October when we have a better idea how strong La Nina is and where it has setup. In the meantime I am looking forward to next winter and putting some miles in and enjoying being out on the trails again. There is something about winter that I just love. The cold crisp fresh air, trees flocked with snow. The creeks running with the ice on the edges and snow on the banks the smiles on people's face out there on their sleds, can't wait.

I wish it were so easy as El Nino bad La Nina good. Here is the chart going back to 1990.

My intuition is that the best scenario for predicting a good upper midwest winter is a weak la nina with a warm dry fall that stretches into November, then a hard flip mid month to cold and snowy.

 

[hermie]

I wish it were so easy as El Nino bad La Nina good. Here is the chart going back to 1990.

My intuition is that the best scenario for predicting a good upper midwest winter is a weak la nina with a warm dry fall that stretches into November, then a hard flip mid month to cold and snowy.

I get what you are saying La Nina doesn't guarantee anything but after this non winter I think we all just want to have a little hope that next year will be a much better winter. We are all itching to get out and enjoy the trails. We really won't know what the winter for next year will hold until late October or November even that will be just an educated guess on what will happen. Pretty much I look at a forecast and take it all with a grain of salt. I have learned like most winter enthusiast you will know how much snow has fallen once the storm is over. I also totally agree we are normally better off with a neutral condition or weak La Nina. What will happens who knows but I personally am going to live in the positive and hope next winter will at least be closer to normal.

 

[skiroule]

I wish it were so easy as El Nino bad La Nina good. Here is the chart going back to 1990.

My intuition is that the best scenario for predicting a good upper midwest winter is a weak la nina with a warm dry fall that stretches into November, then a hard flip mid month to cold and snowy.

Interesting stuff. For us optomistic types here's something to consider. According to the graph, the winter of 2008/2009 was a weak/moderate La Nina that followed a strong La Nina the previous winter and was an absolute killer of a winter for snow in northern MN. The snow was crazy deep. I went back and checked the records and that winter International Falls recorded the highest winter snowfall total since they began keeping complete records in 1947. So what CrossfireLOW is saying is the best recipe for a banner winter. Let us hope it happens.

 

[Airman68]

I wanna say it was 2018 I think? Was cold all winter. I had my cabin in Wausaukee at the time. That winter I remember we rode a bunch right from our door and it was 2+ miles on a road to the trail. Usually mild winters we could not ride from the cabin because the snow would melt on the road. I think that would corroborate the la nina theory.

 

[CrossfireLOW]

Interesting stuff. For us optomistic types here's something to consider. According to the graph, the winter of 2008/2009 was a weak/moderate La Nina that followed a strong La Nina the previous winter and was an absolute killer of a winter for snow in northern MN. The snow was crazy deep. I went back and checked the records and that winter International Falls recorded the highest winter snowfall total since they began keeping complete records in 1947. So what CrossfireLOW is saying is the best recipe for a banner winter. Let us hope it happens.

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
Here is my source for the chart. You can go back to 1950 in tables to try and correlate to good/bad winters.

The hard part about correlating snowfall at least to the El Nino/La Nina, is that you have to look at monthly snowfall values. El Ninos tend to have false starts to winter in October and November that still add to seasonal totals but don't tell the story of Dec-Feb/Mar.

2008-09 numbers for IFalls are particularly impressive because that year had no fall or spring snowstorms. All that snow fell mid november to mid march. It was also all dry fluffy snow that accentuated snowfall values to the upside versus water content.

 

[attakman]

No reason to get all technical...lol...there are always variables with weather..but LA Nina tends to work in our favor in the northwoods of Wisconsin, Northern Minnesota and Yoop...which is what we ALL want right? Normally I'm the pessimistic turd here...lol...but some of you are taking the reigns from me...lol

 

[euphoric1]

all these predictions and theories are great! and gives all of us who rely on weather in any shape or form hope, but.... after this season there should be a realization that weather is not a guarantee or a given and mother nature always seems to have a trick up her sleeve and a bag full of sick jokes and no matter how much we try to predict or think we can change the weather or climate the fact is...mother nature still holds all the cards and there is no telling what hand will be played next.