Seasonal Forecast Question

[steve_in_il]

John,

First and foremost, thank you for all the effort that goes into your seasonal forecast! I always look forward to it and greatly respect your forecasting abilities. If my question goes beyond the rules, feel free to ignore the post and smack me upside the head if we run into each other on Friday night in Milwaukee.

Last year, a couple of other weather forecast sources that I follow (WeatherBELL and Terry Swails) placed a ton of emphasis on the (relatively) warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska as a major driver for the pattern that gave the Midwest a Winter for the ages. This year, they both recognize the El Nino as being probable, as you do. However, both sources are continuing to hang their hat on this Winter's forecast with the assumption that the same pool of warm water (which has not changed much) will again be the main driver in a cooler than normal Winter for the Midwest, East and Southeast. I'm just wondering if you gave that criteria much emphasis as you prepared your forecast? If you get overly technical, I'll never understand. Thanks!

On a side note, but more importantly, CONGRATULATIONS to you and Nora on your recent anniversary! May you share many, many more years together!

Steve

 

[Admin]

Hi Steve.

I guess my own personal feelings are the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska could certainly be a driver in the winter weather in the northern hemisphere, but is still as yet a bit unproven. It has been my experience that when El Nino is occurring, it typically becomes the big dog on the block and overshadows most other factors.

The bottom line is, seasonal forecasting is still WAY more guess work than science and I could certainly be dead wrong in my forecast. That is why I try to go out of my way at the start of the outlook to try and tell folks to not put much faith into it. Either some do not want to read my text, or choose to ignore my warnings about putting much faith into seasonal forecasts/outlooks, but I am amazed at how bent out of shape some on the social media sites are getting about my outlook! Only time will tell what happens this winter!

Thanks for the anniversary well wish!

-John

 

[steve_in_il]

Hi Steve.

I guess my own personal feelings are the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska could certainly be a driver in the winter weather in the northern hemisphere, but is still as yet a bit unproven. It has been my experience that when El Nino is occurring, it typically becomes the big dog on the block and overshadows most other factors.

The bottom line is, seasonal forecasting is still WAY more guess work than science and I could certainly be dead wrong in my forecast. That is why I try to go out of my way at the start of the outlook to try and tell folks to not put much faith into it. Either some do not want to read my text, or choose to ignore my warnings about putting much faith into seasonal forecasts/outlooks, but I am amazed at how bent out of shape some on the social media sites are getting about my outlook! Only time will tell what happens this winter!

Thanks for the anniversary well wish!

-John

Thanks John!

And please understand my question to you was certainly not meant to be an attack on your forecast or a voice of displeasure. As a long time "watcher of weather" and forecaster wannabe, the dynamics that drive our weather have always fascinated me! I enjoy the weather...and appreciate those who attempt to predict the whims of Mother Nature.

Steve

 

[Admin]

You're welcome Steve.

I fully understood that your question was not meant as an attack.

Personally, I hope I am wrong and the others are right! At least from the snowfall standpoint. Cold...Well, maybe not so much!

-John