Strengthening El Nino

[powertoyz]

Hi John,

I've recently read several articles about a strengthening El Nino over the past several weeks (it was first predicted to be a mild one). Without sending everyone into a panic over this winter's snow outlook, is this something you are noticing / tracking as well?

- Nik

 

[whitedust]

Hi John,

I've recently read several articles about a strengthening El Nino over the past several weeks (it was first predicted to be a mild one). Without sending everyone into a panic over this winter's snow outlook, is this something you are noticing / tracking as well?

- Nik

Beat me to it. Same here Rhinelander NBC went into a 10 minute feature regarding El Niño and how it can have a negative effect on the local Northwoods economy that relies so heavily on snowmobile revenue. Lots of long faces on the weather people but felt they had to say no doubt El Niño going to drop the hammer on WI Northwoods with a warmer and dryer winter. UGH hated to hear it and forecasters hated to say it! John is the El Niño strengthening and changing average winter forecast to warmer and dryer than average????

 

[dooski_dan]

I was wondering what this cold and snowy November might mean for the winter. It would be a total tease if we go from this to a warm winter pattern.

 

[euphoric1]

was wondering the same and hoping that this was a sign of what's to come, don't like the news of strengthening El Nino at all and seems like a favorite word for the last how many winters, where as growing up don't ever remember hearing about it, I just hope they are wrong.

I was wondering what this cold and snowy November might mean for the winter. It would be a total tease if we go from this to a warm winter pattern.

 

[Admin]

The official forecast from the NWS has it at an 80% chance of developing within the next 30-45 days. With a less than 50-50 chance it will hang on into spring. I am not going to argue strongly with that.

The water temps had been warming fairly consistently all through Sept and Oct, but have since begun to drop a bit. Day to day and week to week fluctuations are less important than month-month, so it is something that is much slower to proclaim the official status. None of the indicators are for a strong or even moderate event if it happens, just a weak one. So that is good.

There are a number of other things going on that could have an influence on our weather this winter. I like to keep most of my tools close to my chest, as seasonal forecasting is still more experimental than skill. I guess the bottom line is, the ideas in my seasonal outlook have not changed much at all. Sept and Oct were cooler than I would have preferred to lead into a cold/snowy winter, but not cold enough to have me change my mind on anything just yet.

-John

 

[Sledhead!]

I'll take that as good news. I always trust your take over most others!