Temp/Moisture Forecasts from Climate Predication Center

[fred]

Hi John,

I am a faithful fan of your site and follow your forecasts religiously. And I have found your forecasting to be pretty accurate and a good "barometer" around which to plan my winter activities.

I also tend to check the NWS/CPC's 6-10 and 10-14 day temp/moisture outlooks on a regular basis. I'm curious, right now they are predicting much warmer temps for the late December timeframe, but your forecasts indicate average temps.

Now...I hope they are wrong! But more to the point, can you explain how their models/forecasts might differ from yours? I'm guessing they are 100% computer-model driven.

Not trying to be critical in any way, would just like to understand what makes the forecasts different.

Thanks!
Fred

 

[john]

Fred-

I cannot really comment on why other meteorologists say what they say.

Sarcastically I guess I could say that perhaps they are hoping the power of suggestion works on Mother Nature as they had just about all of the US in above average temps for December (which has now been changed dramatically in the most recent forecast) and so far all but the SE corner of the country has been below average. Thus we need a HUGE turn around in the current setup to occur to have their earlier forecast for December verify!

-John

 

[fred]

John,

I appreciate your reply! Think snow!

Thanks,
Fred