This winter

[SledTL]

So I realize that this is completely unpredictable but I'm looking around at some other predictions, yes I know that I should stay with you, but I got curious. I saw on another site something about a negative AO which means more cold for our winter. Their prediction is that Chicago will have a normal winter with a little bit below normal temps. I also don't quite understand the difference between a neutral and stronger El Niño. Last years winter was terrible and I only got to ride once up in lando. We got one rideable storm and that was the weekend I went up north. My lakehouse where we keep our sleds in twin lakes didn't even freeze over the entire winter. I just want to know that if I can't get my dad to take me riding will I at least have some playtime close to home????

 

[jd]

Well, it is looking like there will not be an El Nino this winter, which is good news. In fact, it is looking like things have changed enough since early October, that I plan to update my seasonal outlook after we get past the first week or two of December. There is no such thing as a neutral El Nino, there are weak, moderate and strong ones and then there is the La Nina, which can also be weak, moderate and strong. Last winter we had a moderate La Nina. When there is no El Nino or La Nina, then conditions are said to be neutral, which is where they are at now and look to stay through this winter.

Anyway, with regards to the NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation, it really is just a term used to describe a relationship of pressures in the north Atlantic Ocean. So, the forecast for the NAO is based solely on what the regular computer models are saying. With that said, it is really not any more of a forecasting tool than the models are, but I guess some folks like to use the terminology so that it sounds more impressive.

So keep an eye out for my updated seasonal outlook. The early tip of my hand would hint at an improved outlook than I had back in early October- especially for the Northwoods.

-John

 

[josh_4184]

Well, it is looking like there will not be an El Nino this winter, which is good news. In fact, it is looking like things have changed enough since early October, that I plan to update my seasonal outlook after we get past the first week or two of December. There is no such thing as a neutral El Nino, there are weak, moderate and strong ones and then there is the La Nina, which can also be weak, moderate and strong. Last winter we had a moderate La Nina. When there is no El Nino or La Nina, then conditions are said to be neutral, which is where they are at now and look to stay through this winter.

Anyway, with regards to the NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation, it really is just a term used to describe a relationship of pressures in the north Atlantic Ocean. So, the forecast for the NAO is based solely on what the regular computer models are saying. With that said, it is really not any more of a forecasting tool than the models are, but I guess some folks like to use the terminology so that it sounds more impressive.

So keep an eye out for my updated seasonal outlook. The early tip of my hand would hint at an improved outlook than I had back in early October- especially for the Northwoods.

-John

Awesome John, can't wait for the new update, I am hoping you have a more positive outlook for Northern Lower Michigan as well?!?!?