Three Different Winter Outlooks

[snowman1000]

Well,

I suppose to echo Johns feeling that NO single(or multiple) winter outlook should be taken too seriously, it looks like yet another winter outlook varies from the other 2 previously released.

we now have:

1.) JD Outlook

2.) NOAA saying warmer
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

3.) Accuweather, saying cold...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753

 

[lenny]

well the truth is, it will be winter,,,lol

 

[highhertel]

Typical meteorological prognosticators. Only job I know where somebody can be wrong 50% of the time and still stay employed.

John is the exception of course.



(whew...a little brown nosing never hurts!).

HH

 

[Modman440]

I mean in all honesty it's gonna be winter there will be snow how much is anyone's quess I put more miles on in Indiana and lower Mich last year then ever before because the snow was epic down here. Any year when I put on more than just the few putting around the yard before I load the sled up is a great year. Lol. But if I'm gonna pay attention to any outlook its John I've followed him for years and no one gets closer than him PERIOD!!!!!!!!

 

[Skylar]

I think what most people forget about john is this, his job is that of a private meteorologist, he suppkys forecasts to people looking for a custom forecast, and he does this globally, and has been doing it for 15 or more now. I guess if he sucked, and was wrong 50 percent of the time, he wouldnt be in business anymore lol.

 

[Woodtic]

I've been in Johns office. He said the magic 8/ ball on his desk was Gracie's ?

 

[highhertel]

I think what most people forget about john is this, his job is that of a private meteorologist, he suppkys forecasts to people looking for a custom forecast, and he does this globally, and has been doing it for 15 or more now. I guess if he sucked, and was wrong 50 percent of the time, he wouldnt be in business anymore lol.

To me, trying to forecast a weather prediction 3-4 months in advance is like trying to forecast the stock market 3-4 months in advance. Lots of cutting edge tools and charts to analyze, but in the end, at best both are educated guesses.

HH

 

[josh_4184]

True,

I have been interested in weather my whole life, still kicking myself for not perusing my Meteorology degree. Anyway as John and any other reputable experience weather met will tell you, long term forecasting is a crap shot. Forecast Modeling computers have improved over the years, but once you pass a few weeks in length the modeling is very inconsistent. The atmosphere is constantly changing, among other influences. Using other metrics including ENSO trends can help give an idea but nothing is ever guaranteed. Heck, especially pertaining to our climate in the Great Lakes, it can be next to impossible to forecast with any accuracy because of the lake influence has on our weather especially pertaining to forecasting LES.

Mets such as John have been doing it for many years and have a wealth of experience and have a better record than most but even they admit mother nature will humble even the best of meteorologists. So always take any forecast with caution especially weather 2-3 months out. Basically I always follow the same principal every winter, it will get cold, and it will snow, but how much cold and how much snow is anyone's guess. At least we have the lakes to give us a better chance than most of getting good snow.

 

[timo]

yes but this don't explain how the others are still in business.
in hindsight they all relatively do a good job.

I think what most people forget about john is this, his job is that of a private meteorologist, he suppkys forecasts to people looking for a custom forecast, and he does this globally, and has been doing it for 15 or more now. I guess if he sucked, and was wrong 50 percent of the time, he wouldnt be in business anymore lol.