Upper Air Pattern question

[steelhead]

Good morning John,

It seems that the Upper Air Pattern has been in a NW flow and that it will continue for another 2+ weeks.

Does it hold that the longer it is in that pattern the more entrenched it becomes and harder to change or is that not the case and the chance it changes is not influenced by how long it has been in place?

It would be nice to get some of that moisture rich Gulf flow going for another good storm around New Years!

 

[jd]

We (meteorologists) are not quite sure why a particular pattern will stay "stuck" for weeks at a time, but suffice to say it happens and thus I believe the overall trend for the next several weeks will be the NW flow pattern. That is not to say that there will not be periods when it is in a different setup, perhaps even one that supports a storm tapping into Gulf moisture (this weekend perhaps?).

But be careful what you wish for, Gulf moisture does not always mean the precip falls as snow, even in the dead of winter!

-John

 

[Skylar]

We (meteorologists) are not quite sure why a particular pattern will stay "stuck" for weeks at a time, but suffice to say it happens and thus I believe the overall trend for the next several weeks will be the NW flow pattern. That is not to say that there will not be periods when it is in a different setup, perhaps even one that supports a storm tapping into Gulf moisture (this weekend perhaps?).

But be careful what you wish for, Gulf moisture does not always mean the precip falls as snow, even in the dead of winter!

-John

I like the NW flow, keep it coming.

 

[blu2u2]

I like what I see with John's midday update today!!!

 

[thundersnow]

I like what I see with John's midday update today!!!

John, your midday update looks like what the GFS is now saying and it seems to have been the outlier the last few days and struggling with this storm. While the euro and Canadian models have both been pretty consistent with heavy snow through mid michigan. Just wondering if you could give any input as to which model you think is on the right track and that you would be leaning towards as actually verifying, only wondering because your forecasts have been putting a band of snow through mid Michigan and the midday you showed what I assume is based off the GFS.

 

[jd]

John, your midday update looks like what the GFS is now saying and it seems to have been the outlier the last few days and struggling with this storm. While the euro and Canadian models have both been pretty consistent with heavy snow through mid michigan. Just wondering if you could give any input as to which model you think is on the right track and that you would be leaning towards as actually verifying, only wondering because your forecasts have been putting a band of snow through mid Michigan and the midday you showed what I assume is based off the GFS.

I don't really like to tip my hand when it comes to my methods (never know if my competition is reading), but will just say that I have felt the Europeans ideas were pretty confusing. It was putting all this snow into central/northern IL, northern IN and southern lower MI, but never had the actual atmospheric parameters to do that! They all were around 100-150 miles to the north. Plus, the GFS is now phasing the two streams, while the Euro never truly did, but comes close. I was not really watching the Canadian much. Great beer, hockey players and country. Forecast models could use a bit of sprucing up.

Needless to say, the weekend forecast for the central/northeast Midwest is getting very interesting!

-John

 

[600_RMK_144]

John, the fact you are planning/ hoping to do "mid-day" updates as warranted is really going above and beyond. Thanks for all that you do! Merry Christmas to you and your family!

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Also, I just called the shop and told them to get my sled done NOW!!!! Told him "My Source (AKA: John)" has snow in the forecast for our area.