Winter outlook

hermie

hermie

Well-known member
John's winter Outlook is better then I thought it would be with all the Elnino talk. Let's hope average would be a nice change. Be nice for some of the people southern snow areas to get some riding in. Alot of work every year goes into marking the trails and getting landowner premission. Hopefully they can get out and enjoy all there hardwork.
 
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euphoric1

Well-known member
NOAA has released their prediction map and shows Wisconsin and good part of UP warmer and drier than normal, Almanac says colder and snowier...… Ill go with Johns forecast, seems to be more on than not, half the time the weather outlets cant predict week to week let alone seasonally. I have my hopes on Johns forecast
 
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G

Guest
I think John's take on El Nino is more realistic than all the hype on the various weather channels. Even they say it will not be a full blown El Nino but then they go on to show what a full blown El Nino looks like on various pics. Again though I sure hope it freezes up hard before it snows a lot. It is wet out there this fall.
 
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slimcake

Well-known member
Sure like what Weatherbell is sayin. They seem to be pretty accurate as well. If I can use that word with weather forecasting. Would be interesting to see John's take on what the weatherbell guy is saying.
 
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old abe

Well-known member
whitedust said:
Difficult to get excited about average cold and snow. It is what it is and I’ll make the most of it.
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Pretty much right on whitedust. It doesn't there is a average, or a normal anymore??? Overwhelming storm events happening no matter the season. 100/500 year floods, mega tornadoes, extreme rainfall hurricanes, all of these happening at what seems like all to often??? Who knows what's next??? It is, what it is, so true. Have sled, will travel!!!! And I'm sticking to it. However, I'll go with John and his prospects!!!
 
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MZEMS2

New member
Based on yesterday's weather, I wouldn't rule out anything. Our Spyder group did our monthly ride cruising southern WI. Got caught in blizzard like conditions several times. It was weird. Riding through tree canopy covered roads, with leaves falling so hard because of the 35 mph gusts, along with huge snow flakes at a rate faster than anything we saw last winter.....holy crap!!!! No pics, too damn cold to take the gloves off....It was crazy for about 2 hours. Riding the Spyder in those conditions reminded me of the snowmobile days.....Hey, it's a BRP product....LOL...I heard the field was white for a little bit at Camp Randall for the Badger game..didn't see it though....
 
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DamageInc

Member
old abe said:
Pretty much right on whitedust. It doesn't there is a average, or a normal anymore??? Overwhelming storm events happening no matter the season. 100/500 year floods, mega tornadoes, extreme rainfall hurricanes, all of these happening at what seems like all to often??? Who knows what's next??? It is, what it is, so true. Have sled, will travel!!!! And I'm sticking to it. However, I'll go with John and his prospects!!!
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Hurricane and tornado frequency and intensity are not increasing! The only thing increasing is the barrage of media reports trying to convince you that the climate is changing, to promote their carbon taxes.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/15/experts-hurricane-activity-at-45-year-low-usa-major-hurricane-drought-almost-a-decade/

http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/01/15/after-record-low-tornado-year-noaa-accused-of-inflating-number-of-tornadoes-graph-is-grossly-dishonest/ hurricane_frequency-march2015.png
 

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G

Guest
There have always been earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes , famines , droughts, blizzards, floods, tornados, meteor showers, sunspots, solar storms, tidal surges, and any other natural occuring phenomena. The only thing that has changed is that now everybody has a cell phone with a camera to capture all these events anywhere in the world. That and sensationalistic weather channels competing with each other for the most stunning footage. Maybe there were two more hurricanes than last year. Big deal. If there gets to be a catagory 5 hurricane every three days for 3 months then perhaps something is going on. Nothing to see here.
 
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Tracker

Guest
DamageInc said:
Hurricane and tornado frequency and intensity are not increasing! The only thing increasing is the barrage of media reports trying to convince you that the climate is changing, to promote their carbon taxes.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/15/experts-hurricane-activity-at-45-year-low-usa-major-hurricane-drought-almost-a-decade/

http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/01/15/after-record-low-tornado-year-noaa-accused-of-inflating-number-of-tornadoes-graph-is-grossly-dishonest/ View attachment 59234
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its a wobble thing and I tried explaining it to them and your charts show the same thing...but granite is granite
 
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1fujifilm

Well-known member
Tracker said:
its a wobble thing and I tried explaining it to them and your charts show the same thing...but granite is granite
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I tend to agree about the frequency of storms etc., humans measure in 100 year spans of time (a generous life span for a human) and history measures in 10's of thousands of years (or, 100's of thousands of years way back). Plus, nobody I know was here to tell me about it.

Bear
 
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snoeatr

Member
The weather is not as far off from normals as people think with all the warming media reports. If you look back on records the same has happened for the most part as long as we have records. There is many more people affected in areas that where remote 60+ years ago. That combined with phones and media it just seems way more dramatic. I will say that the thaws in winter are worse than the past 30 years of records but several consecutive years of the 2000's have actually had well above average snowfall in much of midwest. The last couple of poor years stick out in many of our memories but 2-3 years prior where good. I would happily take an average year without making average from 15 days well above temps with 15 days well below. I will take some light thaws as usual just not 50+ degrees followed by a dry cold front that balances it all out. An overall close to average El nino year is a great forecast. Every winter is something to get excited about bad or good!
 
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