Winter Snowfall Predictions???

C

concoures

New member
Winter Outlook

Hello John,

As a long time reader and visitor to your site I always look forward to see your winter outlook predictions. I know you consistently state that you can't put much stock in seasonal predictions but I was curious if you have ever looked back over the years to the predictions you made and compared them to what actually happened. If so how is your score card? Thanks John.

Carl I
 
jd

jd

Administrator
Staff member
concoures said:
Hello John,

As a long time reader and visitor to your site I always look forward to see your winter outlook predictions. I know you consistently state that you can't put much stock in seasonal predictions but I was curious if you have ever looked back over the years to the predictions you made and compared them to what actually happened. If so how is your score card? Thanks John.


Carl I
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When I sit down to produce the seasonal forecast, I do look at the previous years forecast to see how I did. I would say that in general I am "In the Ballpark" most of the time, but never close to being 100% correct in all I say.

-John
 
R

regionrat

New member
Administrator said:
When I sit down to produce the seasonal forecast, I do look at the previous years forecast to see how I did. I would say that in general I am "In the Ballpark" most of the time, but never close to being 100% correct in all I say.

-John
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I think John's little statement he puts out with the winter outlook should accompany any long range outlook/forecast. I don't recall it verbatim, but in the end it's an educated guess at best. No one will be 100% correct, although I guess it's possible that a forecaster or organization might be uncannily accurate one particular year, I doubt anyone is nailing it every year. While the long range stuff is fun to read and follow, especially for us winter weather enthusiasts, the bread and butter is in the one to four day forecasts. I think John does a great job in winter with his graphic and text forecasts. His six through ten day forecast really paints a good picture when the text and graphic are used together. He puts what's possible out there, but he also expresses his doubts.
 
E

eddie1

New member
All the long term forcasts i've seen so far look good for the midwest. I'm guessing his will look good, too. La Nina!!
 
R

regionrat

New member
John's winter outlook is out. It's a good read, and we'll see how it plays out. I certainly hope everyone gets plenty of snow this year. I a hope those people whose livelihoods depend on copious amounts of snow get all they can handle. I hope my area (Chicagoland) gets plenty of snow, but with a 40 inch average, I doubt I'll notice a 20% increase over normal, unless we get half of it in a cool blizzard. Think Snow!!!
 
G

G

Guest
Once they start John's daily winter weather forecasts are pretty close. He has accurately predicted many storms and other events for our area.
 
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