Wow, talk about your crazy weather scenarios...

Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
So, I sit down this early am to start pouring over the latest run of model guidance and all of them indicate the birth of a tropical system out of a disturbance a couple of hundred miles to the south of Jamaica at the moment. All the global models then have the system to track almost due north and across Cuba, the Bahamas and then north, northeast from there. The European Model indicates the system to actually make landfall along the NJ coast- which could bring the potential for a storm surge into NYC, by Tuesday (the 30th) and then track NW, combine with the cold air associated with an upper air trough working through the nations midsection and be sitting over Lake Huron by Wednesday night, bringing heavy snows to portions of the UP and possibly even lower MI.

Not something I am putting a lot of faith into, but something to watch unfold as the European is usually not an "off the wall" type of model.

Gotta get back to work!

-John
 
Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
It would be neat to see develop, but right now I would give it about a 10-15% chance of happening.

Even if the UP did see some heavy snow, probably still a bit too early to be building a base. About a month away from that.

-John
 
M

Modman440

New member
I hope this one pans out and maybe evan indiana will get some idc if its wet snow or slop snow if i cant see grass ill rip it up for a few min just to smell 2 stroke again
 
S

snocrazy

Active member
reiley99 said:
I guess I better start cleaning my leaves off the yard
Click to expand...

I am in the same boat. Also have to get the snow plow running. Ahhhhhh! I just need 2 more weeks. No matter how much I try to be ready for winters arrival, it still always seems to be a mad dash.

Living the Dream.... :)
 
W

whitedust

Well-known member
John any update on Sandy for UP & Northern WI? All area TV weather people have started the talk on the maybes?
 
Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Models still very uncertain. The one that had it making a NJ landfall has been consistent with a landfall, jut differing on where the past 4 days of runs. Latest is back to NJ, but most of the precip falling as rain and confined to OH, lower MI and eastern UP as well as all of the NE US. Other model has been fairly consistent in keeping it well off shore. A run yesterday did have it making landfall in Maine. The storm would mostly likely be post-tropical by the time it makes any landfall, but would still bring lots of wind and torrential rainfall if it made landfall.

-John
 
L

lenny

Guest
2 rain days last week and 2 rain days this week so far,,,and I am right in the middle of a roof job
 
mezz

mezz

Well-known member
1.22" here on the 23rd. Last night, near .75 in about an hr. I didn't have time this a.m. to check the rain gauge, but after this mornings rains it should be over an inch again. This has been a very wet October so far & not a good time right now as we've got streets still torn up with water system construction still going on. Sure hope we can get some relief so they can finish connecting & get the asphalt down.-Mezz
 
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