Superior and michigan water temps...effest on LES?

[momoney2123]

I just read this......

Lakes Superior and Lake Michigan are currently six degrees colder than last year. If the water continues to remain colder than normal, it could have an impact on Michigan’s winter in several ways.

The average water temperature on Lake Superior and Lake Michigan is currently colder than both last year and the long-term average.Mark Torregrossa

Currently Lake Superior has an average surface water temperature of 47.6 degrees. Last year on this date Lake Superior was at 53.7 degrees. The long-term average water temperature on Lake Superior for October 11 is 51.1 degrees.

I wonder how much this could effect the LES this winter?

 

[Sledhead!]

I will roll the dice on this one here with my hypothesis: As long as the lake is unfrozen, it is capable of producing lake effect snow. A few degrees cooler shouldn't have a huge impact (other than the fact that it will have less to drop before freezing, thus shutting the LES down sooner perhaps.)

Now, if John answers this post, he will either completely put me in my place, or agree with this to some extent

 

[whitedust]

John already spoke to this saying the surface waters are a drop in a very big bucket & as the water turns over it will all be mixed up & temp will level out to normal. Not a big shaker & mover in LES formation.

 

[Deleted member 10829]

Someone had asked John this in the Ask John section. I copied John's response below.

The lake temps only really make a difference in the early season (up until around mid-Dec). After that point, the water temps are pretty much the same in any given year.

So early season LES could be impacted some, but probably not by much as it is really the atmosphere that is the biggest factor. As far as the ice accumulation, that too will depend most on the weather and not the lake temp going into winter.

Keep in mind, when we are talking about lake temps, we are really talking about the top 15-20 feet. After that the temps are close to the same all year long and the lake is over 1000 ft deep in many areas. So the section that actually fluctuates the most is a sliver of the entire lake.

-John

 

[Sledhead!]

Sweet, didn't read that from John so looks like I was right

 

[momoney2123]

Someone had asked John this in the Ask John section. I copied John's response below.

The lake temps only really make a difference in the early season (up until around mid-Dec). After that point, the water temps are pretty much the same in any given year.

So early season LES could be impacted some, but probably not by much as it is really the atmosphere that is the biggest factor. As far as the ice accumulation, that too will depend most on the weather and not the lake temp going into winter.

Keep in mind, when we are talking about lake temps, we are really talking about the top 15-20 feet. After that the temps are close to the same all year long and the lake is over 1000 ft deep in many areas. So the section that actually fluctuates the most is a sliver of the entire lake.

-John

cool, thanks for posting that. Was a little concerned we may get a prediction of less system snow and LES than normal. Let it snow.