2015/2016 Seasonal Forecast
- Thread starter whitedust
- Start date
mjkaliszak
New member
That's funny right there.....!
I guess another year of chasing the snow. I use a few things to determine where our voyage takes us.... this forum,nws national radar mosaic Enhanced loop , nohrsc snow depth map, witch doctor, flip of the coin, and the TOP Secret Honey Hole list....
Then of course the obvious, days of vacation available, sick & personal days available, and how much cash is in the wallet !
I guess another year of chasing the snow. I use a few things to determine where our voyage takes us.... this forum,nws national radar mosaic Enhanced loop , nohrsc snow depth map, witch doctor, flip of the coin, and the TOP Secret Honey Hole list....
Then of course the obvious, days of vacation available, sick & personal days available, and how much cash is in the wallet !
You wish!
A few more thoughts on El Niño
As an aviation weather wonk/armchair climatologist, I can say this has been a fascinating week of weather in Phoenix and the Southwest — some of the craziest weather I've seen in Phoenix in 47+ years!
Example (quoted in part):
This "deep upper low centered roughly over SW Maricopa County" — I'd call it a "tropical storm wannabe" — started out off the CA coast near San Diego, then tracked eastward toward AZ. It was responsible for the huge downpour and mudslides along the "grapevine" on I-5 near Tejon Pass & Gorman, along SR58 near Mojave, CA, and even ~ 0.20" of rain on two successive days in Death Valley (October 15-16) — Where the "normal" rainfall is 0.07" for the entire month of October!)
Last night and this morning you could clearly see the tight and rather swift circulation around that deep low even on Intellicast's radar, almost contained entirely within AZ with just a few lobes reaching into NM.
Arizona's monsoon season "officially" ended on September 30.
This has definitely not been a classic "monsoon" condition, where the towering cumulus clouds march from Mexico north along the higher terrain well east of Phoenix, plainly visible from Phoenix like a "parade of chessmen", then late in the day the outflow from the dissipating mountain storm cells slides down into the valley, gaining energy along the way, yielding late afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms in well defined lines of storms and haboobs. Nope. In this case the storm cells have just popped up spontaneously/randomly in the counterclockwise circulating "arms" around this deep, tight "tropical storm wannabe" with no organized/consolidated "storm/outflow/gust front".
A most fascinating El Niño effect!
Some Californians have been lusting over Lake Superior — the largest fresh water body by volume in North America — for years; some have even suggested building a pipeline, siphoning water from Lake Superior and shipping it to California! Sorry, that's against the law and an international compact between Canada and the US.
But Ahaaa, "they've found a way" to steal water from Lake Superior for California — indirectly.
Climate scientists say they expect this year's El Niño will be among the top three strongest events since 1950. While the phenomenon could bring flash floods, it might also deliver replenishing rains to parts of California, which is grappling with a brutal four-year drought.
The corresponding effect of El Niño in the Great Lake states this winter is said to be warmer temperatures and significantly decreased snowfall, thus El Niño will effectively deliver Lake Superior water to California without violating the law, and without a pipeline!
How clever!
As an aviation weather wonk/armchair climatologist, I can say this has been a fascinating week of weather in Phoenix and the Southwest — some of the craziest weather I've seen in Phoenix in 47+ years!
Example (quoted in part):
Last night and this morning you could clearly see the tight and rather swift circulation around that deep low even on Intellicast's radar, almost contained entirely within AZ with just a few lobes reaching into NM.
Arizona's monsoon season "officially" ended on September 30.
This has definitely not been a classic "monsoon" condition, where the towering cumulus clouds march from Mexico north along the higher terrain well east of Phoenix, plainly visible from Phoenix like a "parade of chessmen", then late in the day the outflow from the dissipating mountain storm cells slides down into the valley, gaining energy along the way, yielding late afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms in well defined lines of storms and haboobs. Nope. In this case the storm cells have just popped up spontaneously/randomly in the counterclockwise circulating "arms" around this deep, tight "tropical storm wannabe" with no organized/consolidated "storm/outflow/gust front".
A most fascinating El Niño effect!
Some Californians have been lusting over Lake Superior — the largest fresh water body by volume in North America — for years; some have even suggested building a pipeline, siphoning water from Lake Superior and shipping it to California! Sorry, that's against the law and an international compact between Canada and the US.
But Ahaaa, "they've found a way" to steal water from Lake Superior for California — indirectly.
Climate scientists say they expect this year's El Niño will be among the top three strongest events since 1950. While the phenomenon could bring flash floods, it might also deliver replenishing rains to parts of California, which is grappling with a brutal four-year drought.
The corresponding effect of El Niño in the Great Lake states this winter is said to be warmer temperatures and significantly decreased snowfall, thus El Niño will effectively deliver Lake Superior water to California without violating the law, and without a pipeline!
How clever!
So, they keep comparing our 2015/16 winter to 1997-98 year as to what we will experience this year. Here are the totals from John's historical snowfall chart for this time period.
October =4.6
November =32.7
December =23.3
January =52.4
February=5.5
March=12.3
April =0
May=0
Total=130.8
Let's see how we compare this year, see how smart these weather guys are!
October =4.6
November =32.7
December =23.3
January =52.4
February=5.5
March=12.3
April =0
May=0
Total=130.8
Let's see how we compare this year, see how smart these weather guys are!
momoney2123
New member
The only common thing to this year and 97-98 is that its a strong el nino. There are many other players that effect our winter. If you look at the most simple players, where the warmest water is located near the equator, you will see this year the warmest water is far off the coast of south america. In 97-98 it was right up on the coast. Also thruout the Pacific ocean, the water temps are destinctively different than that year. This year more resembles 09-10 and 57-58. Also another fact i read. 11 of the last 20 el ninos resulted in colder than average temps for the US...
Yes, was only speaking of the El Nino situation.
Interestingly, the snowfall during 2009-10 is very similar in that Nov, Dec and Jan were the biggest snow months, not much at all after that.
If I was a betting man, I would plan my trip in the late Dec/Jan time frame but who knows!
As most say, probably be a "follow the snow" kind of winter.
Thanks for the clarification.
Interestingly, the snowfall during 2009-10 is very similar in that Nov, Dec and Jan were the biggest snow months, not much at all after that.
If I was a betting man, I would plan my trip in the late Dec/Jan time frame but who knows!
As most say, probably be a "follow the snow" kind of winter.
Thanks for the clarification.
momoney2123
New member
Just hear all over the media comparing 97-98 when there isnt much in common with that year other than they were both strong el ninos. I just hope we get to ride during christmas and new year somewhere in midwest as after that someone always has snow..always have always will even...let it snow
Actually, a little bit more than coincidence. Rt 12 does let me pick any sled I would like and so it was my decision to get the 153" track, not the 141". However, the decision was made mostly due to the age of the intended operator than the prospect for an unusually snowy winter! Although even in the worst of years, we get enough snow that I am sure I will have my fair share of stucks with the 153!
-John