Arctic Air

[thundersnow]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/severe-arctic-cold-could-mimic-january.html

John what are your thoughts on this? Are you seeing this same type of setup?

 

[lincolnwood]

Yeah thats exactly what I was going to say, "The polar vortec oscillation" yeah thats it.

 

[Admin]

I talk about an arctic air outbreak for next week in my write up. While I have not looked back to see what in 1985 this story is referring to, I can say that I do not see the cold to get way out of hand in both the 6-10 day and 11-16 day periods...at least in the lower 48. Temps will be below average and for mid-January that is pretty cold! but I do not see record breaking cold to occur at this point. That is actually good news for LES production as you do not want temps to be brutally cold, it actually gets too cold to produce big LES with temps bitterly cold.

I do see the core of the cold to be focused in Canada, especially in the Hudson Bay region.

It is also not unusual at all for the (or a) polar vortex to set up shop in the Hudson Bay area, it is quiet a common place and we even call those "Hudson Bay Polar vortices".

Bottom line is it looks like next week will be cold and perhaps the week after that too, just not at record breaking levels.

-John

 

[snoluver1]

That is actually good news for LES production as you do not want temps to be brutally cold, it actually gets too cold to produce big LES with temps bitterly cold.

John, I'm curious what exactly you mean by "brutally cold".

I ask because I recall a trip to South Range in January 2005 (I think ??). Temps were what I would consider brutally cold, and I had one of the best LES events I ever experienced on that trip. I seem to recall air temps in the -10 to -20 range and reported windchills of -40. It snowed somewhere around 2 ft in two days. Pushed powder over the hood all weekend. Temps were so cold when you stopped, your goggles would instantly ice over. No chance of defogging, just had to change them out. I also ended up with my first taste of frostbite that weekend.

 

[600_RMK_144]

John, I'm curious what exactly you mean by "brutally cold".

I ask because I recall a trip to South Range in January 2005 (I think ??). Temps were what I would consider brutally cold, and I had one of the best LES events I ever experienced on that trip. I seem to recall air temps in the -10 to -20 range and reported windchills of -40. It snowed somewhere around 2 ft in two days. Pushed powder over the hood all weekend. Temps were so cold when you stopped, your goggles would instantly ice over. No chance of defogging, just had to change them out. I also ended up with my first taste of frostbite that weekend.

Sounds like a blast (less the frost bite part). I'd love to see powder coming up over my hood!

 

[Admin]

John, I'm curious what exactly you mean by "brutally cold".

I ask because I recall a trip to South Range in January 2005 (I think ??). Temps were what I would consider brutally cold, and I had one of the best LES events I ever experienced on that trip. I seem to recall air temps in the -10 to -20 range and reported windchills of -40. It snowed somewhere around 2 ft in two days. Pushed powder over the hood all weekend. Temps were so cold when you stopped, your goggles would instantly ice over. No chance of defogging, just had to change them out. I also ended up with my first taste of frostbite that weekend.

I remember the event you are talking about, in fact, here is a picture of AL with his 159" 900 M stuck in the snow.


Something I learned relatively quickly with regards to the weather is that there are NO GUARANTEES! Only probabilities of something happening. The general public seems to hate that because most folks want things to be black and white. So, while it is true that when things get brutally cold, and by that I mean temps below zero for highs, it gets too cold to produce big LES, there are always the exceptions. I do remember the flakes in that event being very small for most of the event- which it typical of LES events in very cold air, but they really came down and the event also was a multi-day event.

I will also say that if temps had been around 15 degrees warmer during that event, the totals could have been doubled or perhaps even tripled. So as awesome that it was, it could have been awesomer (that one was for frnash!).

-John

 

[lenny]

Yeah thats exactly what I was going to say, "The polar vortec oscillation" yeah thats it.

it could also be in conjunction with a rotating mass of sempernuematic transmedial atmospheric dialysis. You see, a hyperbolic dismantling of the upper trough regulates the amaterasu effect thus resulting in coefficient metabolic synopsis in and around the region in question,,,,yup

 

[600_RMK_144]

I remember the event you are talking about, in fact, here is a picture of AL with his 159" 900 M stuck in the snow.
View attachment 37168

Something I learned relatively quickly with regards to the weather is that there are NO GUARANTEES! Only probabilities of something happening. The general public seems to hate that because most folks want things to be black and white. So, while it is true that when things get brutally cold, and by that I mean temps below zero for highs, it gets too cold to produce big LES, there are always the exceptions. I do remember the flakes in that event being very small for most of the event- which it typical of LES events in very cold air, but they really came down and the event also was a multi-day event.

I will also say that if temps had been around 15 degrees warmer during that event, the totals could have been doubled or perhaps even tripled. So as awesome that it was, it could have been awesomer (that one was for frnash!).

-John

Great explanation!

 

[snoluver1]

Great explanation!

x2
Thanks John.