December setting up to be a bust

[old abe]

We have been over this before, but apparently you still don't understand that weather is cyclical, and those RECORD winters that you remember from the late 70s and 90s were NOT a benchmark for "normal" WI winters. And since we seem to be entering a period of low solar activity, it's likely that we will see some very good winters in the near future. Maybe not this winter (since we have a mild El Nino starting up), but there should be some good ones soon. Don't worry about those trace levels of CO2 that we have released; they are not radically altering our climate, as you have been mistakenly led to believe.

Perception and reality are VERY different when it comes to the memories of winter for most people. Read this for a better perspective: https://dnr.wi.gov/wnrmag/html/stories/1996/dec96/weather.htm

I'm not here to talk/debate climate, or weather. Not in what is normal, cycles, records of severe,or mild, or what ever. Can't change it. It is what it is. I studied both in school, and follow Elwin Taylor very closely as I farm. I simply stated what our over all experience has been in years past, as life in general, and snowmobiling over decades. Our family started snowmobiling in 1965. I have many friends, and family that live all over the states of Wis./Minn. Many of them had, or still do snowmobile. They all agree, the winter season is not as it used to be. I don't care if you agree or not, I'm not here to argue that.

 

[snobuilder]

The best riding so far in SE WI was in November. ...28th....

 

[slowsi00]

When I first started to ride in the early 90's we were up north (pickerel lake) on Dec 15th and I can't remember a year with no snow. Then on New Years when I was 16/17 we had nothing but glare ice to ride on for New Years. My little sister tipped the two-up over, she did this slow motion epic slide on the side panel for like 100ft and was going 1-3 mph the whole time it was hilarious... dad was chasing the sled down the ice on its side as she was crying (for no reason besides tipping over the sled). Awesome time we still talk about that moment today.

I have not ridden a New Years in 20+ years in the Pickerel Lake area since we migrated to the UP. Going back there and seeing many of the resorts and business closed because of the snow line moving north has really been an eye opener. Many places we loved and rented are no longer in business. Lots of resorts for sale for a good price, speculators on the snow line moving back south should buy all these places and cash out when it dumps for years on end again.

 

[Skylar]

I'm very fortunate that a good buddy owns a house u.p. there, and lets me stay there whenever I want, and let's me keep the toys there. When it snows, I go. I remember the days of planning one weekend a month Dec-Mar and being at the mercy of ma nature, sometimes the snow was awesome, sometimes it sucked. I realized a long time ago, that if i wanted to keep snowmobiling, i was going to have to travel to the snow. Snow in south central Wi has always been iffy in my opinion. I started riding back in the late 80's, some winters were good, and some sucked. The last two down here have sucked lol.

 

[old abe]

When I first started to ride in the early 90's we were up north (pickerel lake) on Dec 15th and I can't remember a year with no snow. Then on New Years when I was 16/17 we had nothing but glare ice to ride on for New Years. My little sister tipped the two-up over, she did this slow motion epic slide on the side panel for like 100ft and was going 1-3 mph the whole time it was hilarious... dad was chasing the sled down the ice on its side as she was crying (for no reason besides tipping over the sled). Awesome time we still talk about that moment today.

I have not ridden a New Years in 20+ years in the Pickerel Lake area since we migrated to the UP. Going back there and seeing many of the resorts and business closed because of the snow line moving north has really been an eye opener. Many places we loved and rented are no longer in business. Lots of resorts for sale for a good price, speculators on the snow line moving back south should buy all these places and cash out when it dumps for years on end again.

Same way in many ares of upper midwest slowsi00. Many resorts where we used to stay long before your start, now are not open in the winter anymore do to poor snow, or no snow, and the lack of business from those. These same resorts years ago were packed with snowmobilers. And it wasn't just a year now and then. Reservations needed to be made in advance. When we started riding, SW Wis. always a good ride. Not that way now. Times change. As far as speculating on the snow line moving back south, and buying resorts to cash back out, good luck with all that!!! I doubt I see it.

 

[slimcake]

They built a freaking hotel in my town back in the early 90's because of all the snowmobile traffic. Little motel outside of town was so full all winter a group of locals put their money together a built an AmericInn. Today after standing empty for a few years is now a assisted living home...

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its because your TYPE A...and you like riding around on little INDY CARS at a HIGH RATE OF SPEED pushing the envelope of life to the edge of a BONZAI PIPE LINE wave


hows that???

I guess thats how you could put it... LOL Tracker I hope you are going to donate your organs to research when the time comes. You are one interesting dude!!

 

[DamageInc]

I'm not here to talk/debate climate, or weather. Not in what is normal, cycles, records of severe,or mild, or what ever. Can't change it. It is what it is. I studied both in school, and follow Elwin Taylor very closely as I farm. I simply stated what our over all experience has been in years past, as life in general, and snowmobiling over decades. Our family started snowmobiling in 1965. I have many friends, and family that live all over the states of Wis./Minn. Many of them had, or still do snowmobile. They all agree, the winter season is not as it used to be. I don't care if you agree or not, I'm not here to argue that.

It's obvious that you didn't even read that link, and you clearly don't want to learn or consider the possibility that your opinion is misguided and wrong. I remember your previous posts on this subject. You keep repeating this "winter is not as it used to be" nonsense, and comparing winters now with the harsh winters of the late 70s and mid-nineties, as though those winters were some sort of benchmark for a "normal" winter. Those were unusually cold and snowy winters, not "normal" winters. Read the link! https://dnr.wi.gov/wnrmag/html/stories/1996/dec96/weather.htm And study some WI climate history from before you were born; the warmest decade on record was the 1930s, not recent decades.

 

[old abe]

It's obvious that you didn't even read that link, and you clearly don't want to learn or consider the possibility that your opinion is misguided and wrong. I remember your previous posts on this subject. You are a member of the Church of Gore and the CO2 climate religion, and probably an Obama voter. You keep repeating this "winter is not as it used to be" nonsense, and comparing winters now with the harsh winters of the late 70s and mid-nineties, as though those winters were some sort of benchmark for a "normal" winter. Those were unusually cold and snowy winters, not "normal" winters. Read the link! https://dnr.wi.gov/wnrmag/html/stories/1996/dec96/weather.htm And study some WI climate history from before you were born; the warmest decade on record was the 1930s, not recent decades.

Seems you have a agenda to push, as you want to try to remake, or portray me as someone/something I'm not??? I'm not interested. And I really don't care if you like, dislike, agree, or disagree with what I have said. I say so what!!! There is nothing wrong with my memories of past years experiences, and many others likewise.

 

[harski]

I'm not here to talk/debate climate, or weather. Not in what is normal, cycles, records of severe,or mild, or what ever. Can't change it. It is what it is. I studied both in school, and follow Elwin Taylor very closely as I farm. I simply stated what our over all experience has been in years past, as life in general, and snowmobiling over decades. Our family started snowmobiling in 1965. I have many friends, and family that live all over the states of Wis./Minn. Many of them had, or still do snowmobile. They all agree, the winter season is not as it used to be. I don't care if you agree or not, I'm not here to argue that.

I'm with you on this as the "old timers" know how things were back in the day. My in laws own a farm in SW Wisconsin that has had the same trail running through for decades. They can remember riding from before Thanksgiving through Easter in most years. My wife has many stories jumping on the sled with mom and dad bombing around all over. In the later years they would even back pack up to their seasonal home now and again!! I know there could be an debate on weather cycles and all but I'm hanging my hat on the old timers theory as they have no agenda but do have awesome memories and stories to share!!!!

Harski

 

[Cirrus_Driver]

It's obvious that you didn't even read that link, and you clearly don't want to learn or consider the possibility that your opinion is misguided and wrong. I remember your previous posts on this subject. You keep repeating this "winter is not as it used to be" nonsense, and comparing winters now with the harsh winters of the late 70s and mid-nineties, as though those winters were some sort of benchmark for a "normal" winter. Those were unusually cold and snowy winters, not "normal" winters. Read the link! https://dnr.wi.gov/wnrmag/html/stories/1996/dec96/weather.htm And study some WI climate history from before you were born; the warmest decade on record was the 1930s, not recent decades.

You're trying to talk logic to a "liberal" climate change, pseudo-scientist. Don't even waste the time and effort. I agree with you 100%. 30-40 years is nothing but anecdotal evidence when it comes to climate "change". 100 years of data is merely a blip in the earths history - no conclusions can be drawn.

 

[DamageInc]

Seems you have a agenda to push, as you want to try to remake, or portray me as someone/something I'm not??? I'm not interested. And I really don't care if you like, dislike, agree, or disagree with what I have said. I say so what!!! There is nothing wrong with my memories of past years experiences, and many others likewise.

Your memories are biased and conveniently forgetting all of the warm years that happened in your youth, and ignoring the data about warm winters that happened before you were born. Did you read the link about the last century of WI weather? I'm betting you didn't.

My agenda is to counter anyone who promotes the CO2 scam, and that includes you. Your past posts on this are still on this forum for everyone to read, so don't deny it.

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I'm with you on this as the "old timers" know how things were back in the day. My in laws own a farm in SW Wisconsin that has had the same trail running through for decades. They can remember riding from before Thanksgiving through Easter in most years. My wife has many stories jumping on the sled with mom and dad bombing around all over. In the later years they would even back pack up to their seasonal home now and again!! I know there could be an debate on weather cycles and all but I'm hanging my hat on the old timers theory as they have no agenda but do have awesome memories and stories to share!!!!

Harski

Tracking the temperature

After tracking the weather year to year for 105 years, hindsight provides some trends. Wisconsin's mean temperatures can be divided into four periods: the 1890s through 1920s when temperatures fluctuated both above and below the mean temperature; the 1930s, '40s and early '50s when temperatures were consistently above normal; the late 1950s through the early '80s when temperatures were consistently below normal; and the late '80s through the present when temperatures appear to fluctuate above and below the norm again.

Temperature trends for the winter and summer seasons were nearly identical to the annual averages, but the winters were more variable. Winters during the late '70s were consistently eight degrees colder on average than winters in the 1930s. So, among other things, when your grandparents and parents carp about how much tougher life was during the Depression, remind them that they are only talking about economic conditions. If you are in your thirties and forties, you experienced tougher weather as a child than your elders!

In summer, the differences between the highest and lowest means were about three degrees. That may seem small, but if such subtle changes are sustained, the landscape ecology would shift dramatically. A mean summer temperature change of only two degrees could change the look of the Northwoods, shifting the dividing line between Wisconsin's southern oak savanna and our boreal northern forest about 80-100 miles northward. Eventually the predominant stands of conifers so noticeable north of a line from St. Croix Falls to Wausau to Oconto Falls would not be common until one traveled as far north as the state border between Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
https://dnr.wi.gov/wnrmag/html/stories/1996/dec96/weather.htm

 

[Sparkplug]

60 miles on my side by side today in iowa

 

[eagle1]

Well there's no debating this December blows!!!! Sigh

 

[snobuilder]

60 miles on my side by side today in iowa

LOL ride what you can when you can!

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Well there's no debating this December blows!!!! Sigh

I will take my ride able lake ice here in SE WI as a sign of good things to come.

 

[snoluver1]

So for all you "data" trackers, I pose the question; could the data be skewed? I've asked this question before, but I'll ask it again with more detail.

I think all of us remember winters with more consistency. Regardless of the overall average at the end of a season. (Per the data)

Example # 1:
30 days with an average temp of 30*. 15 days straight of 20* x 15 days straight of 40* = an average of 30* at the end of the month. In this example, you got 15 days below freezing. Whatever precip came down in the below freezing days came down as snow, and it stacked up. For 15 days you built ice on the lake. You got 2 weeks of snowmobiling in.

Example # 2:
it's 20* one day and 40* the next. 15 days in the month of each temp. At the end of the month, you still have an average temp for the month @ 30*. Except in example #2, you never made any ice, and the precip that came as snow melted off the next day, or came as rain. You got zero snowmobiling in for the month.

Obviously, an over simplified scenario, but I'm curious if the consistency is why we all remember better winters overall? You could extend those "averages" out over 40 days or 60 days, or 90 days, etc, and still end up with the same "seasonal" average....both in temps and total snowfall.

 

[xsledder]

So for all you "data" trackers, I pose the question; is the data skewed? I've asked this question before, but I'll ask it again with more detail.

I think all of us remember winters with more consistency. Regardless of the overall average at the end of a season. (Per the data)

Example # 1:
30 days with an average temp of 30*. 15 days straight of 20* x 15 days straight of 40* = an average of 30* at the end of the month. In this example, you got 15 days below freezing. Whatever precip came down in the below freezing days came down as snow, and it stacked up. For 15 days you built ice on the lake. You got 2 weeks of snowmobiling in.

Example # 2:
it's 20* one day and 40* the next. 15 days in the month of each temp. At the end of the month, you still have an average temp for the month @ 30*. Except in example #2, you never made any ice, and the precip that came as snow melted off the next day, or came as rain. You got zero snowmobiling in for the month.

Obviously, an over simplified scenario, but I'm curious if the consistency is why we all remember better winters overall? You could extend those "averages" out over 40 days or 60 days, or 90 days, etc, and still end up with the same "seasonal" average....both in temps and total snowfall.

Actually, I remember winters much different from you. Most of the time I remember in the '80's, '90's and 2000's wondering if there would be good snow in the northern woods at Christmas time. Heck, we would not plan a New Year's trip until a week or two before Christmas, and that was iffy. It would not be uncommon to have to wait for a storm to develop across the north and then make our plans. During the rest of the season, we always called the resort to get snow conditions. Most of the time we were feed lies about the conditions, but we made the best of it. I never remember a year without the dreaded 'January Thaw', which also seemed to happen in February and March.

If the 70's were such great snow years, why did we lose so many snowmobile manufactures in the 70's and early 80's. Remember John Deere, Scorpion, Kawasaki, Harley-Davidson, Moto-Ski, Rupp, Allouette, Raider, Manta, Skiroule, need I say more? I read a newspaper article that it was because of lean snow years in the 70's. So when did all this snow happen? First it was the 60's, next it was the 70's, now it is the 80's and 90's. I will tell you, there WAS NOT great snow in the 80's and 90's. Except for a period in the late 80's where Minnesota would get hit by a number of blizzards during the year, but that was short lived. When you always have to case snow, you pay attention more.

 

[DamageInc]

So for all you "data" trackers, I pose the question; could the data be skewed? I've asked this question before, but I'll ask it again with more detail.

I think all of us remember winters with more consistency. Regardless of the overall average at the end of a season. (Per the data)

Example # 1:
30 days with an average temp of 30*. 15 days straight of 20* x 15 days straight of 40* = an average of 30* at the end of the month. In this example, you got 15 days below freezing. Whatever precip came down in the below freezing days came down as snow, and it stacked up. For 15 days you built ice on the lake. You got 2 weeks of snowmobiling in.

Example # 2:
it's 20* one day and 40* the next. 15 days in the month of each temp. At the end of the month, you still have an average temp for the month @ 30*. Except in example #2, you never made any ice, and the precip that came as snow melted off the next day, or came as rain. You got zero snowmobiling in for the month.

Obviously, an over simplified scenario, but I'm curious if the consistency is why we all remember better winters overall? You could extend those "averages" out over 40 days or 60 days, or 90 days, etc, and still end up with the same "seasonal" average....both in temps and total snowfall.

It's funny how we had one of our coldest winters on record just 5 years ago, and everyone seems to have already forgotten it. There were no thaws all winter, and the powder in the Yoop was bottomless. That was the winter that made me switch from the Cobra to a Back Country. No regrets.

 

[DamageInc]

Actually, I remember winters much different from you. Most of the time I remember in the '80's, '90's and 2000's wondering if there would be good snow in the northern woods at Christmas time. Heck, we would not plan a New Year's trip until a week or two before Christmas, and that was iffy. It would not be uncommon to have to wait for a storm to develop across the north and then make our plans. During the rest of the season, we always called the resort to get snow conditions. Most of the time we were feed lies about the conditions, but we made the best of it. I never remember a year without the dreaded 'January Thaw', which also seemed to happen in February and March.

If the 70's were such great snow years, why did we lose so many snowmobile manufactures in the 70's and early 80's. Remember John Deere, Scorpion, Kawasaki, Harley-Davidson, Moto-Ski, Rupp, Allouette, Raider, Manta, Skiroule, need I say more? I read a newspaper article that it was because of lean snow years in the 70's. So when did all this snow happen? First it was the 60's, next it was the 70's, now it is the 80's and 90's. I will tell you, there WAS NOT great snow in the 80's and 90's. Except for a period in the late 80's where Minnesota would get hit by a number of blizzards during the year, but that was short lived. When you always have to case snow, you pay attention more.

Northern WI and the Yoop were phenomenal in the mid-nineties. We rode from the beginning of Dec to the end of March every year, and it was DEEP. I remember Vilas trail markers getting buried in the deep snow, like the Yoop has in really good years. It was cold, too. We set the all time low temp record for WI in Feb 1996 (I rode that night). Everyone got spoiled and thought it was the new normal, but unfortunately not. If you look at a graph of snowmobile sales, you can see exactly where those great years happened.

I was a little kid in the 70s, but I know we had some harsh winters late 70s. The 80s had a lot of ups and downs, but more bad years than good. It was the economy as much or more than the weather, that "thinned the herd" of manufacturers.

 

[xsledder]

Northern WI and the Yoop were phenomenal in the mid-nineties. We rode from the beginning of Dec to the end of March every year, and it was DEEP. I remember Vilas trail markers getting buried in the deep snow, like the Yoop has in really good years. It was cold, too. We set the all time low temp record for WI in Feb 1996 (I rode that night). Everyone got spoiled and thought it was the new normal, but unfortunately not. If you look at a graph of snowmobile sales, you can see exactly where those great years happened.

I was a little kid in the 70s, but I know we had some harsh winters late 70s. The 80s had a lot of ups and downs, but more bad years than good. It was the economy as much or more than the weather, that "thinned the herd" of manufacturers.

I have a very different memory of snow conditions in Vilas County during the '90's. In the '90's I was going to my in-laws place in Sayner every winter and I only remember a few times when there would be 2+ feet of snow on the ground during a trip. I also remember a few trips over X-mas where they had 4" of snow on the ground during X-mas. If the trail markers were buried, it was because of a plow or the marker was on a very short pole. I had to call locals in Sayner before each trip to make sure there was snow and the conditions of the trails. I have a very vivid memory of my father-in-law preaching every winter in the '90's how it didn't snow up there like it did in the 70's. "In the '70's the town plowed every night and the snow banks were 4, no 5, no 7 feet high!" "I couldn't see over them!" (He is a short man.)

I remember going on a club snowmobile trip to Crivitz in the late '90's and driving back home the same day because of no snow, and this was in January.

All I am saying is that I have been hearing since the '80's, when this global warming/climate change thing started, it doesn't snow like it use too. The '80's was compared to the '60's. The '90's was compared to the '70's. The 2000's was compared to the '80's and now the 2010's is compared to the '90's. The winters in the '90's WERE NOT any better then they are now. There was not feet upon feet upon feet of snow except for a few isolated areas or at short, isolated times. At some point this "it doesn't snow like it use too" B.S. has to stop. It is like they have everyone brainwashed. Unless you have photographs of every day during every winter at every location, it is just your memory, and we know how reliable eye-witness accounts are. I know I only take pictures during the bad storms, and not days like today. So I look at the pictures from one event and say, "Boy, it really snowed back then." Not considering it was 40+ degrees and no snow the day before. Boy, 2011 was a very snowy year for Chicago because of the Ground Hog Day's Blizzard. The snow was gone a few weeks later. Chicago had more snow than the UP at that time because we attended John's Ride-In, which occurred right after the blizzard, and noted how much less snow the UP had.

Here is a picture from the Ground Hog Day Blizzard with my SUV and trailer ready to go to John's Ride-In.



With the 4, no 5, no 7 foot drift blocking the car. (It was actually 3 foot max. No big deal.)

I will agree there were some very cold nights in the '90's up there. We also had very cold nights last year.

John should keep these threads from the 2010's so when we cry about the lack of snow in 2030's and compare it to 2010's, we have proof the winters sucked then too.

 

[Admin]

Folks- Debate is great and in my opinion, the more the merrier. Please stick to the rules though. Especially - NO PERSONAL ATTACKS and NO POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS. We all have our opinions and thanks to this fantastic country we live in, we are all free to express them. Please observe the freedoms of others, even if they are completely against yours and make no sense at all.

FWIW, I believe things are also cyclical in every measurement of our environment. All you have to do is look at the data that comes from actual direct measurements and plot it vs. time. With that said, I have been extremely intimate with the winters up here since 1991 and can say (and prove with data) that 1990-91 was a bit of an off year. The winters of 1994-95 and 1997-98 were to of the worst I have ever seen as far as lack of snow, cold.

-John

PS. Now that the observation of this winter so far is etched in our minds and it is not too hard to recall the dire forecasts for bitter cold and snow (including December) from outlets like the Farmers Almanac and New Farmers Almanac and anyone else saying so. Can we also etch into our heads for permanent recall that these forecasts are really not useful for anything other than entertainment? Please!