Forecast Weasel-Wording

[skiroule]

Just had to chuckle at this weather alert that was posted for our area this morning. It seems a little iffy. Think even John would find this one funny:

...WINTER STORM TARGETING REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY...

Confidence is increasing on the possibility of a significant
winter storm impacting the northern plains and upper midwest early
next week. Specific impacts will be dependent on the exact track
of the system...which is still very uncertain. Significant
snowfall is possible somewhere in the region, but there is still a
high degree of uncertainty on locations and amounts of the highest
snowfall accumulations.

????

 

[Go Fast or Go Home]

Wish my jobs I've had through the years were as forgiving. I wouldn't have lasted long if I only did it 50% correct.

Don~

 

[whitedust]

Local Forecasters crawled in a hole on this storm today maybe will deal with at 10PM? Shoot it's Saturday this storm if it happens is Monday. I'm riding to The Yoop Monday so would be good to know. Prolly picked up 4" of freshy here in last few days but holiday traffic out in force having a ball on ER trails yesterday....good to see many families on the trails.

 

[CrossfireLOW]

Well, started out the morning with NWS saying 8-12" expected for me through Tuesday 6pm. I have come to the conclusion that as a rule before a "snowstorm" that I take the lower end of the NWS forecast and divide it by 2 to figure out the most snow I might realistically get. In this case 8-12" is forecast so I am hoping to get 4".

So far, sure enough the NWS forecast has gone from 1-2" by tomorrow morning and 2-4" Monday to around and inch by tomorrow morning and 1-3" Monday...so the hour by hour drop in the forecast has begun. I really don't like being this pessimistic, but I have been burned to many times expecting a big snowstorm and nothing materializes. I am at the point I would rather be a pessimist and be pleasantly surprised if the forecast comes to be accurate.

 

[whitedust]

Yeah I really miss JD forecast over the weekends and very difficult to get any forecast in the the WI northwoods. NBC Rhinelander took wind from my sails last night forecasted a rain snow mix for Monday.

 

[skiroule]

Crossfire, your “prediction adjustment” algorithm seems pretty solid and I suspect it is right more often than not.

Over time I’ve developed one of my own. I can’t divulge the exact nature of the equation but I can say that the variables include: the predicted high and low snow totals, the square root of my age, the barometric pressure, wind direction (in degrees) and the number of times a snowshoe rabbit hops across the yard the day before the predicted storm.

My prediction “fudge factor” works most of the time but fortunately it failed this time and the snow totals were a pleasant surprise.

Sorry to be so excited about this but it is some of the deepest snow I’ve seen in years in this area at this time of the year. We were so overdue. Definitely some smiles today.

 

[bearrassler]

That looks like a lot of snow Kelly, but I think I had quite a bit more in my driveway today

 

[skiroule]

That looks like a lot of snow Kelly, but I think I had quite a bit more in my driveway today

Be honest now Steve, was this snow that actually fell in ND or did it blow in from Minnesota?

Either way, it's all good. Riding through treeline drifting today it was bottomless (winds were gusting to 40). On the throttle and spinnin' track all the way. Couldn't stop to take a photo or I'd still be there. Just too much fun.