toddspolaris
Member
Hello John, thanks for the great site, but for three days the models show snow for mi then overnight it dives south to southern ohio. How does that happen so fast? Seems like the models are getting worse, or is it just me
How can the models be so far off
- Thread starter toddspolaris
- Start date
I guess I would need more info for the particular instance you are talking about. But if it is regarding the weekend storm. Even today we are still 4 days away from it happening and the upper air energy responsible for it to happen is still out in the Pacific Ocean, around 3000 miles from it's weekend position. So one should expect some changes with a weather event forecasted so far out.
While it may seem like a huge change to move the main band of snow from MI to OH, in the grand scheme of things, it is really not that big. Just change the track the storm will take after it makes it's turn to the northeast from the southern Plains by a few degrees one way or the other and that can change the placement in the eastern Midwest by several hundred miles.
I don't think the models are really any worse, although they do seem to be struggling of late. Plus, many of the systems this winter have been born from disturbances in the jetstream that become separated from the main jet. The models have fits with this scenario.
Hope this all helps!
-John
While it may seem like a huge change to move the main band of snow from MI to OH, in the grand scheme of things, it is really not that big. Just change the track the storm will take after it makes it's turn to the northeast from the southern Plains by a few degrees one way or the other and that can change the placement in the eastern Midwest by several hundred miles.
I don't think the models are really any worse, although they do seem to be struggling of late. Plus, many of the systems this winter have been born from disturbances in the jetstream that become separated from the main jet. The models have fits with this scenario.
Hope this all helps!
-John
Seemingly - even though we're sitting here in 2021, Meteorology is still in it's infancy as far a sciences go.
I was under the impression most master degree's or doctorates (PhD's) nowadays are nothing more than a fancy word for "Research" that ultimately gets used in the betterment of the models.
If I could go back in time, I would have definitely made it my Major in College, albeit my math ability sucks and it wasn't offered at the school I attended.
Always room for improvement in any science, and I feel your pain Todd about the vast differences the models constantly spit out from day to day.
I was under the impression most master degree's or doctorates (PhD's) nowadays are nothing more than a fancy word for "Research" that ultimately gets used in the betterment of the models.
If I could go back in time, I would have definitely made it my Major in College, albeit my math ability sucks and it wasn't offered at the school I attended.
Always room for improvement in any science, and I feel your pain Todd about the vast differences the models constantly spit out from day to day.