its coming!

E

euphoric1

Well-known member
lots of outlets and models pointing towards a very snowy period for the U.P. starting tomorrow and extended through sunday, let it snow...let it snow...let it snow!!! maybe get those famous words from mezz??
 
mezz

mezz

Well-known member
I'm not too sure about those amounts Indy, though I will go as far as saying we will be in for some extended LES starting Thursday afternoon. The model runs that I have played with show the GFS & Euro models at 6 to 11" respectively in the Keweenaw over a 4 day period. The far western UP / Ironwood area GFS & Euro models at 16 to 31" respectively over a 4 day period. I think the lower of the 2 are more than likely a greater consideration. It doesn't pay to look beyond 4 days, nonetheless, snow is on the way, amounts will be up for grabs depending on the winds & the direction over the big pond. Far eastern UP snow belts look to be in the same amounts as the Keweenaw right now. We'll see what happens.
 
K

katden4

Active member
Ice around the edges of our lake south of mercer this am. With the cold forecast we should have ice over within the next few days. Winter is arriving!
 
dfattack

dfattack

Well-known member
mezz said:
I'm not too sure about those amounts Indy, though I will go as far as saying we will be in for some extended LES starting Thursday afternoon. The model runs that I have played with show the GFS & Euro models at 6 to 11" respectively in the Keweenaw over a 4 day period. The far western UP / Ironwood area GFS & Euro models at 16 to 31" respectively over a 4 day period. I think the lower of the 2 are more than likely a greater consideration. It doesn't pay to look beyond 4 days, nonetheless, snow is on the way, amounts will be up for grabs depending on the winds & the direction over the big pond. Far eastern UP snow belts look to be in the same amounts as the Keweenaw right now. We'll see what happens.
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I think Indy's graphics were for 14 days which could be realistic based on what you say could happen just over 4 days.
 
mezz

mezz

Well-known member
dfattack said:
I think Indy's graphics were for 14 days which could be realistic based on what you say could happen just over 4 days.
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My point is that 14 days out is a long way out & a lot of things can & usually do change over that time frame. It most certainly could end up that way, but, to count on it is as John would say is out in La La land.
 
W

whitedust

Well-known member
mezz said:
My point is that 14 days out is a long way out & a lot of things can & usually do change over that time frame. It most certainly could end up that way, but, to count on it is as John would say is out in La La land.
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Boyish enthusiasm is great! Who doesn’t like the first LES dump? 😀But for me I never count my snowflakes before they fall. UP trails open Sunday and there will be sleds if there is snow the pent up demand is HUGE!
 
indy_500

indy_500

Well-known member
dfattack said:
I think Indy's graphics were for 14 days which could be realistic based on what you say could happen just over 4 days.
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Bingo… this is accumulation across 14 days… which could just be 2” per day and compact to 1/3 of what’s fallen over that time period (because it’s LES). THAT is the realistic truth, many see extended accumulative forecast models, 2 days later it snows and they’re like WTF we didn’t get 30” LOL
 
mezz

mezz

Well-known member
I am well versed in timeline accumulation, again, in my opinion those amounts seem a bit aggressive even for a 14 to 16 day outlook. Again, anything beyond 4 days is a wishful dream in la la land. Now, is it still possible? Sure, but, in all likelihood not realistic considering how things change in a short period of time. Meanwhile, my plow buggy is ready regardless.
 
E

euphoric1

Well-known member
whitedust said:
Boyish enthusiasm is great! Who doesn’t like the first LES dump? 😀But for me I never count my snowflakes before they fall. UP trails open Sunday and there will be sleds if there is snow the pent up demand is HUGE!
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"Boyish" yep! when it comes to snowmobiling I will admit I'm a 52 year old "boy" I still get excited at first prospect of good snow and first ride! and this year to top it off...NEW TOY! "Boyish"? dam right I'm like a 2 year old sitting in front of a Christmas tree with a bunch of presents under it with my name on it! "boyish" and proud of it LOL!! LET IT SNOW!!
 
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