There is a lot going on in that write up and I really do not even know where to start, but I guess in a nutshell...Conditions have been running very close to being an El Nino, but not to the point where they want to declare it official. El Nino is so 80's, it's all about Climate Change these days. LOL. They feel there is a 50-50 chance of El Nino to occur this spring and then conditions to return to neutral state regardless. The rest is about different tools used to make up the February, March, April (FMA) forecast for the US that was issued back on Jan 15th.
-John