John what do you think of this???? NOAA report

[alwaysright]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.html


This doesn't look good but since when has NOAA known anything. I understand that it's only slightly better than a shot in the dark, just wondering your thoughts???

 

[CrossCat]

I just read that as well. Hopefully they are wrong but I am not having a good feeling about this winter as the weather has really been screwed up for over a year now in Minnesota. We need moisture and if Winter doesn't show up the farmers are really going to be in trouble.

 

[jd]

Well, like all seasonal forecasts, take it with a grain of salt.

It is interesting to see them comment on the fact that they too think the pending El Nino may be more of a head-fake than the real deal. If true, that would be better news for the Midwest, but does not guarantee good news.

As for the other details, like the dry anomaly in the western Midwest, I would not get my undies in too much of a bunch over it. It could happen, but I really do not see any strong reasons to put that in there.

Given the flux we are in based on the presence or not of an El Nino, I may actually update my seasonal outlook in early December to reflect the goings on with things in the central Pacific where El Nino occurs.

-John

 

[CrossCat]

Thanks John for replying. I was kind of thinking after I read the story that they were contradicting themselves saying the El Nino might already be over before it started but they were still expecting a El Nino like year to happen. Kind of didn't make any sense.

 

[whitedust]

All starting to sound the same with a lot of uncertainty so thinking average winter maybe if our future. No worries until Thanksgiving then you start to get a feel for December 1 opening day & that is all that matters. If we lose December to the thaw monster lots of sleds & accessories will be in dealer inventories. If we get off to good start in December it will be a good year.