L. Superior temps warmest in a century. "Horrendous lake effect snow" possible.

Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Don't mean to pee on anyone's parade, but we were down this same road just 2 years ago. I just about printed out a response to the question: "With the lake so warm, will that bring more lake effect snow", because I was asked it everywhere I went that summer.

There are a few problems with this idea.

1) We are not talking about the whole lake being so warm, just the top 10-20 feet (surface water). The average depth of the lake is around 500 feet, with many areas 800-1200 feet deep, so a VERY small portion of the lake is so warm.

2) Since it is only the very top of the lake that is so warm, it can be cooled off pretty quickly with strong winds and wave action (something pretty common over Lake Superior in autumn!). Back in 2010 when we were setting the current standing records, the Labor Day weekend saw an unusually strong, early autumn storm roll through, with 50-70 mph winds and 15-25 foot waves. The average surface lake temps went from the low 70's to the low 50's in 2 days. So much for a warm lake! For what it is worth, lake effect snow in 2010 was pretty paltry.

3) Even if the lake avoids any strong winds and the mixing that it brings with the colder water below, the air gets pretty cold up here as we get into October and early November, which is before the main lake snow season kicks in. That cool air tends to cool the lake surface temps down pretty quickly.

4) Even if the lake avoids the strong winds and mixing and the autumn is unusually warm and allows the surface lake temps to remain well above average into the lake snow season (late Nov through the rest of the winter), the most important factor for producing lake effect snow is what the atmosphere is doing. Without the correct atmospheric conditions, lake effect snow will not occur, no matter what the lake temps are.

So, I am not saying that the warm surface lake temps right now cannot lead to more lake snow than average this coming winter (I'm at the top of the list of persons hoping it comes true), but there are some pretty big hurdles in the way and not making it over just one will derail the whole idea.

-John
 
D

Dave_B

Active member
Quit peeing on our parade! :) Two bad winters in a row, we need to see every sign as potential for an epic year.
 
W

whitedust

Well-known member
To me we wait until late Nov & early December & see what happens? Just no way to know what & where snow will fall in July. There will be LES happens every winter.:)
 
R

rodehard

New member
I got the official word today from Dorothy at Parkview. Pine cones are falling off the trees early; sure thing for lots of snow.
 
J

Jonger1150

New member
You want a warm storm-free autumn, then a major cold shot coming down in mid November.... Early riding year for us.

Lets hope.
 
D

dcsnomo

Moderator
Administrator said:
Don't mean to pee on anyone's parade, but we were down this same road just 2 years ago. I just about printed out a response to the question: "With the lake so warm, will that bring more lake effect snow", because I was asked it everywhere I went that summer.

There are a few problems with this idea.

1) We are not talking about the whole lake being so warm, just the top 10-20 feet (surface water). The average depth of the lake is around 500 feet, with many areas 800-1200 feet deep, so a VERY small portion of the lake is so warm.

2) Since it is only the very top of the lake that is so warm, it can be cooled off pretty quickly with strong winds and wave action (something pretty common over Lake Superior in autumn!). Back in 2010 when we were setting the current standing records, the Labor Day weekend saw an unusually strong, early autumn storm roll through, with 50-70 mph winds and 15-25 foot waves. The average surface lake temps went from the low 70's to the low 50's in 2 days. So much for a warm lake! For what it is worth, lake effect snow in 2010 was pretty paltry.

3) Even if the lake avoids any strong winds and the mixing that it brings with the colder water below, the air gets pretty cold up here as we get into October and early November, which is before the main lake snow season kicks in. That cool air tends to cool the lake surface temps down pretty quickly.

4) Even if the lake avoids the strong winds and mixing and the autumn is unusually warm and allows the surface lake temps to remain well above average into the lake snow season (late Nov through the rest of the winter), the most important factor for producing lake effect snow is what the atmosphere is doing. Without the correct atmospheric conditions, lake effect snow will not occur, no matter what the lake temps are.

So, I am not saying that the warm surface lake temps right now cannot lead to more lake snow than average this coming winter (I'm at the top of the list of persons hoping it comes true), but there are some pretty big hurdles in the way and not making it over just one will derail the whole idea.



-John
Click to expand...

I see your facts, and I raise you emotion! http://youtu.be/AFvS8UDRcWY
 
Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
I will say that the berry crops are all early this year. Probably more to the very mild spring, but strawberries were 1-2 weeks early (Chassell Strawberry fest had to freeze their pickings so that they would have them around for the festival), raspberries and blueberries were about a week to ten days early and I just walked by some blackberries this morning that were ripe. Normally blackberry picking is labor day stuff.

I have seen early frosts in hot summer years too.

-John
 
garyl62

garyl62

Active member
Administrator said:
Don't mean to pee on anyone's parade, but we were down this same road just 2 years ago. I just about printed out a response to the question: "With the lake so warm, will that bring more lake effect snow", because I was asked it everywhere I went that summer.

There are a few problems with this idea.

1) We are not talking about the whole lake being so warm, just the top 10-20 feet (surface water). The average depth of the lake is around 500 feet, with many areas 800-1200 feet deep, so a VERY small portion of the lake is so warm.

2) Since it is only the very top of the lake that is so warm, it can be cooled off pretty quickly with strong winds and wave action (something pretty common over Lake Superior in autumn!). Back in 2010 when we were setting the current standing records, the Labor Day weekend saw an unusually strong, early autumn storm roll through, with 50-70 mph winds and 15-25 foot waves. The average surface lake temps went from the low 70's to the low 50's in 2 days. So much for a warm lake! For what it is worth, lake effect snow in 2010 was pretty paltry.

3) Even if the lake avoids any strong winds and the mixing that it brings with the colder water below, the air gets pretty cold up here as we get into October and early November, which is before the main lake snow season kicks in. That cool air tends to cool the lake surface temps down pretty quickly.

4) Even if the lake avoids the strong winds and mixing and the autumn is unusually warm and allows the surface lake temps to remain well above average into the lake snow season (late Nov through the rest of the winter), the most important factor for producing lake effect snow is what the atmosphere is doing. Without the correct atmospheric conditions, lake effect snow will not occur, no matter what the lake temps are.

So, I am not saying that the warm surface lake temps right now cannot lead to more lake snow than average this coming winter (I'm at the top of the list of persons hoping it comes true), but there are some pretty big hurdles in the way and not making it over just one will derail the whole idea.

-John
Click to expand...

What does this guy know anyway? :) I say it's coming!
 
favoritos

favoritos

Well-known member
Administrator said:
I will say that the berry crops are all early this year. Probably more to the very mild spring, but strawberries were 1-2 weeks early (Chassell Strawberry fest had to freeze their pickings so that they would have them around for the festival), raspberries and blueberries were about a week to ten days early and I just walked by some blackberries this morning that were ripe. Normally blackberry picking is labor day stuff.

I have seen early frosts in hot summer years too.

-John
Click to expand...

Everything is early around here. I live with a consumate gardner and she is worried she will not have any blooms left for the late summer.

The warm and early spring did us in around here.
 
A

arcticgeorge

New member
favoritos said:
Everything is early around here. I live with a consumate gardner and she is worried she will not have any blooms left for the late summer.

The warm and early spring did us in around here.
Click to expand...
..............................Our garden is right on time as far as producing things to eat here in the far Western UP. Tomatoes are still green, eating some strawberries and spinich. We started most of our stuff indoors.
The warm lake talk was all around in 2010. I would go to a garage sale and people were talking about the warm lake and big snow expected but as John said one big storm stirred it up and cooled it down. Lets hope that doesnt happen this year and it stays warm as long as possible to keep the lake warm.(and hopefully the other factors help produce lake effect snow, Johns 4th point) My first year here winter got off to a slow start but kicked in pretty good around Dec. 9th. and snowed 24 hours a day for lat least 5 days straight,
Neighbors were like "you havent seen nothing yet" but we had a less than average year. I have a old Ariens snowblower now so bring it on!
 
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E

elf

Well-known member
we were swimming last weekend on the north shore near Silver Bay and the water was actually comfortable. Must have spent 30-40 minutes straight in the water, never done that before.
 
P

Polarice

New member
Well maybe at the end of September when I'm up salmon fishing I'll be able to break out the sleds? haha I guess I'll keep dreaming!
 
mezz

mezz

Well-known member
Bouy temps on the big pond yesterday ranged from 68f on the West end at 1' in depth to 66f to the North & to the East at 1' in depth. I am willing to take some of the signs as a positive thought toward what could be in store for us this winter, but, I would not & will not hang my hat on it. After 3 broken winters here in the Keweenaw, I am more than ready for the return of some normalcy, or should I say, what we are accustom to.:rolleyes:-Mezz
 
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