My Seasonal Outlook is Out

[skylar]

Thanks Nash, I knew you would come through for me.

 

[admin]

regionrat-

It may be too strong of a statement to say it that way. I think a more proper way to say it would be if the El Nino does not strengthen by the start of winter, then the warm anomaly and all the related issues it brings about would not be as meaningful.

-John

 

[olsmann]

Man, couldnt you have just lied to us for now? J/k No offense, but I think everyone is rooting aginst you this time! Just like Skylar said Have trailer, will travel!

 

[saber]

Sorry everyone, it's all my fault. We finally bought our own cabin this summer. I knew this would happen.

maybe if I convinced the wife I need a new sled then we could all wear shorts thru Feb as well.

The sled is almost ready to go, I guess I need to give the trailer a good look over as well.

Just remember: A bad day on the trails is better than a good day at home.

 

[snoeatr]

Man people are down today on that outlook. Remember that doesn't mean we won't have snow all winter! John said less snow and cold than the last 2 years, but not 70 and sunny all winter. The past 2 seansons where great and we are lucky for that. There still could be tons of snow, nobody knows for sure. We have delt with lots of El Nino years in the past and have always snowmobiled. The only bad thing is the fall has been typical of the El Nino year with cold and wet conditions. Lets hope winter bucks the trend. As long as the snowbelts keep it coming of the lake it will be a good winter. As far as us in the central and southern midwest, we are used to getting snow and it melting within a week so get out there when you can and trailer to the northwoods whenever possible.

Let it snow!

 

[pfd_crew]

well said snoeatr, i never really ride around home anyways, always trailer to the U.P. It will be a good season, just think snow

 

[NytroFIB]

Ahhh...but waverunning would be fun on the trails - LOL!

 

[canoepaddler]

Have trailer....will travel.

 

[ubee]

Its going to be a real cold winter,The locals all have big woodpiles!

 

[cmharcou]

All the willy worms in my area are black. I haven't seen a white one yet. So hopefully the willy worms are giving us a clue.

 

[anonomoose]

John says"It may be too strong of a statement to say it that way. I think a more proper way to say it would be if the El Nino does not strengthen by the start of winter, then the warm anomaly and all the related issues it brings about would not be as meaningful. ,"

Ah, yes...."Sunny today with a chance of rain, highs in the 70's and lows in the -10 area, unless the sun fails to show up in which case the Highs will be in the -10 area and the lows will be near 70.

Guess I will be watchin the sheep on the hill AGAIN this year. Sheep stand up..they'er hungry...sheep lay down they are tired...the rest is all up to interpretation.....

Don't forget ...weathermen can be wrong 70% of the time and still get a paycheck....

 

[lakesimcoe]

Thanks John,

Your seasonal outlook is much appreciated by me every year, albeit the gloomy outlook is a downer, but would rather have the truth than a sugar coated lie....

Thanks again

David

 

[2000sxr700]

Ubee, you are a fricken classic man. you come up with the best pics at the right time! Awesome.

 

[whitedust]

Thanks JD what will be will be. Dec 1 starts the countdown but we ALWAYS have enough snow to go sleddin. Sounds like don't wait ride while conditions hold.

 

[hunter74]

Wish the outlook call had more reasoning outside of it being a, Nino possibly strengthening.

And a elaboration of this would be nice.. But being sick all month I can't complain with the generic's.

"things have occurred since then to convince me that the odds are strong that the current El Nino will play a role in the weather we see across the US this winter."

 

[dcsnomo]

Hey John-
Remember the old joke about "well, Mom's on the roof?"
You could have started out that way, at least!

 

[mezz]

I don't necessarily disagree with the points mentioned in the outlook, it is a conservative outlook. After all, John does tend to keep his outlooks on the conservative side. There are indeed too many factors that can change during the course of time. A factor that does play in our favor at this point & time is that El Nino is in a weaker state now than it was earlier this summer & appears to be weakening, however, that does not mean it cannot change. I firmly believe that a weak El Nino could play out in our favor here in the Keweenaw if all elements come into play at the right time, i.e. cold enough to keep the LES going yet just warm enough to keep the Big Lake from capping off entirely with ice. We could also be lucky enough to have that scenerio as well as a train of system snows. It's been 30 years since our last record snow year, we are due for a repeat performance. Will we?, someday, will it happen this year? No one knows for sure. It's weather, you can't really predict it, however, anything is possible. The Keweenaw will have snow, how much?, that is up to Mother Nature, it is certainly not in our hands. I am remaining optimistic about the outcome of our winter, after all, we haven't really been let down too often. "Think Snow", I always do.

-Mezz

 

[sabercat]

Whats a willy worm?

 

[hunter74]

The weak Nino is going in the other direction of weakening.. But there are so many other factors that come into play that make my head spin. I was just hoping to get a little more (spinning) in depth reasoning from John in his outlook.

Until the pattern from the last two yrs worth of weather changes, I guess you could give me reasons why this winter will be above average temps and below average snow until I'm blue in the face from spinning and I wouldn't buy it, El Nino and all.

 

[anonomoose]

Whats a willy worm?

It's what the guy above with the axe, doesn't have. He be lucky to find it for a month.