Seasonal Forcast.
- Thread starter olsmann
- Start date
600_RMK_144
Active member
Take it easy
It sure has me wondering, but, as mentioned in my latest journal. Snowy Novembers like this one are not a clear indicator of what the entire winter will be like. We have had some that fell flat on their face, one that set the all time record for snow in the Keweenaw and some other spots in the Midwest (78-79) and others that just calmed down and were average.
I honestly think that the next 2-3 weeks will speak volumes as to what the rest of the winter will be like.
-John
I honestly think that the next 2-3 weeks will speak volumes as to what the rest of the winter will be like.
-John
Thanks for having my back 600_RMK_144, but I can take it. If I did not want to have pot shots taken at me for my forecasts, I would not put them out there. What does amaze me year after year is that I try and go out of my way to say that no one should put much faith into my or any other seasonal outlook/forecast, but for some reason many still do. I had a major bust 3 years ago, did ok the next year. Did quite well last year and we'll see how this season goes. Bottom line, they were all barely more than a dart toss and I am not afraid to say it. That is just the fact of where we are at as far as seasonal forecasting goes...No matter what anyone else tries to say.
Perhaps if my seasonal outlook is a total bust this year, folks will finally start taking me seriously when I say they should not put much faith into it...but I'm not holding my breath!
-John
I was joking
highhertel
Member
John,
Is lake effect snow more challenging to predict from a seasonal standpoint than system snow? Seems like there is a whole different set of variables and unknowns to deal with.
Hope all is well.
HH
Is lake effect snow more challenging to predict from a seasonal standpoint than system snow? Seems like there is a whole different set of variables and unknowns to deal with.
Hope all is well.
HH
Lake effect snow is probably one of the hardest things to forecast for in all of meteorology. It typically varies greatly within small distances, so the effects can be dramatic to the public, depending on where they are in proximity to the snows. I have heard that some areas not too far from Buffalo still had grass poking through, while less than 40 miles away, 6'+ fell!
-John