Updated Extended Forecast

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ilcatman2

New member
John you said in in your extended forecast we will know more in 30 days as to the affect of el nino and our beloved snow and since its been almost 30 days just wondered if you were seeing any major differences to your extended forecast? Is this big storm in Montana/Dakotas a sign of how this winter will be... but closer to the UP, WI and IL of course ;) THANKS!
 
jd

jd

Administrator
Staff member
It is looking fairly certain that either no El Nino will form or any El Nino that forms will be very weak and short lived. Sea surface temps in the El Nino region have topped out in most cases and are even cooling in some spots. There are even some forecasts that we could be dealing with a weak La Nina by the spring. Although forecasts are not all that great.

With that said, I still am not ready to give much more insight as to what this winter will be like, but if the pattern does not change to one that is colder and snowier for the central Midwest, then I would not expect anything too much better than an average winter.

The big storm in MT, ND and the southern Canadian Prairies is encouraging, but then the El Nino looking pattern for next week isn't. I do think that I may update my seasonal outlook in early December if I feel there are any real reasons to change things in it.

-John
 
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osnw3

New member
Nothing wrong with average, and I know how JD feels about seasonal forecasting, and I know LES is unpredictable, but what the heck. Seasonal forecasts for Houghton, MI ( http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory/trends/1213-CMX.html ). I hope the formulas that spit out the numbers based on a specific cycling weather pattern are correct, looks like a moderately active season, DJF, for precipitation in the Keweenaw. :)
 
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osnw3

New member
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