It is looking fairly certain that either no El Nino will form or any El Nino that forms will be very weak and short lived. Sea surface temps in the El Nino region have topped out in most cases and are even cooling in some spots. There are even some forecasts that we could be dealing with a weak La Nina by the spring. Although forecasts are not all that great.
With that said, I still am not ready to give much more insight as to what this winter will be like, but if the pattern does not change to one that is colder and snowier for the central Midwest, then I would not expect anything too much better than an average winter.
The big storm in MT, ND and the southern Canadian Prairies is encouraging, but then the El Nino looking pattern for next week isn't. I do think that I may update my seasonal outlook in early December if I feel there are any real reasons to change things in it.
-John
THANKS!