Virus Predictions

[Admin]

Have spent some time today looking over the latest data and trends.

It looks like we may have reached the apex of the new case curve here in the US, or are within 3-4 days of it. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Spain, Italy have all been dropping for days. The US saw it’s first drop since the rapid spread started. There may still be a uptick or two because of growing testing, but in reality the true number of new persons sick will be dropping during any uptick.

i predict the current restrictions will remain in place to the end of the month for the US as a whole. Then after that the gathering of somewhere between 15 and 25 people will be allowed as long as they are all wearing masks. Not long after that, most smaller businesses will be allowed to open. Larger ones too, as long as there are not more than the gathering limit. A week or two after that, bars and restaurants will be able to open to the public, but there could be a limit to how many can be in the building based on its size.

By mid-June, the feds will announce a vaccine or successful treatment, or both (I actually believe we have one or both right now, but is being kept under wraps because of the major problems it would cause because the supply is nowhere near the demand). By mid-June the supply will be able to meet the demand. Once we have a treatment or vaccine all will be back to the way it was before the virus came.

i also believe the feds might let state and or local governments change the dates of when the restrictions end- either earlier or later.

Time will tell!

What day you?

 

[gary_in_neenah]

Sure hope you're right. I'm thinking you have a better grasp of trends and data than most of us due to your profession. It will be fun to follow this thread in the weeks to come!

Gary

 

[dfattack]

I hope you are right as far as trends go, but also hope we are back to normal quicker than the end of May. I'm not sure how some industries will be able to keep going at our current pace. I'm one of the businesses that are trying to benefit from the PPP / SBA loan program but that is only designed to be for 8 weeks once we are funded. Without that we would be in very tough shape. In our business we have anywhere from 7-14 days of Cash on hand to pay bills. That is an industry norm for those of you who will say that is poor planning.

 

[jr37]

Wow, John. This is a thread that I would have never guessed you to start. We are about to be overwhelmed by the vast intelligence of a couple regulars to this site.

 

[mrbb]

right now cases are increasing by leaps and bounds every 24 hours
I don;t think we hit any apex
on Friday we had 300 cases as of tonight news were at 2600 in one small town/area! and claiming its growing yet!

I do hope we settle down soon, as its very hard to get anything here, even stores that are open, are half empty on things, shelves empty in every other row!

state ordered stay at home in effect whole state
and curfew from 8 pom to 6 am
and law enforcement has been told to STOP folks with more than 4 people in a vehicle and random stops asking where your going and WHY
and one town has SO many NOT following the stay at home in effect(they claim less than 15% are staying home)
there trying to get the national guard in there to curb things!

 

[xcr440]

Wow, John. This is a thread that I would have never guessed you to start. We are about to be overwhelmed by the vast intelligence of a couple regulars to this site.

 

[eagle1]

Can't wait for it to end so I can get out and spend some money!!! ......I also need haircut REALLY bad. Lol

 

[Grant Hoar]

Have spent some time today looking over the latest data and trends.

It looks like we may have reached the apex of the new case curve here in the US, or are within 3-4 days of it. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Spain, Italy have all been dropping for days. The US saw it’s first drop since the rapid spread started. There may still be a uptick or two because of growing testing, but in reality the true number of new persons sick will be dropping during any uptick.

i predict the current restrictions will remain in place to the end of the month for the US as a whole. Then after that the gathering of somewhere between 15 and 25 people will be allowed as long as they are all wearing masks. Not long after that, most smaller businesses will be allowed to open. Larger ones too, as long as there are not more than the gathering limit. A week or two after that, bars and restaurants will be able to open to the public, but there could be a limit to how many can be in the building based on its size.

By mid-June, the feds will announce a vaccine or successful treatment, or both (I actually believe we have one or both right now, but is being kept under wraps because of the major problems it would cause because the supply is nowhere near the demand). By mid-June the supply will be able to meet the demand. Once we have a treatment or vaccine all will be back to the way it was before the virus came.

i also believe the feds might let state and or local governments change the dates of when the restrictions end- either earlier or later.

Time will tell!

What day you?

Three thoughts:
1. I think John got hacked
2. Would have had a different impact if it was dated April 1st
3. I pray he is correct. I foresee a much grimmer outlook
4. No way there is a hidden vaccine or treatment. It would be political suicide to have that and keep it hidden

 

[snobuilder]

When I heard this I actually wrote it down.....
On March 25, 2020 WI Gov. Evers predicted that by April 8, 2020 as many as 22,000 cases of c-19 in the state with as many as 1500 deaths.
Currently we are at aprox. 2700 case and 100 deaths with 800 hospitalizations statewide.
We are all glad he was wrong, but that was the reason behind the stay at home order.

If you are an individual or family that has been completely hunkered down you might be shocked to know that the big box stores that were allowed to remain open are seeing record breaking amount of customers. I can vouch for one with first hand knowledge and also can see volume at the Walmart right next door....LOL

After 2 huge sales weekends in a row, starting on Friday April 3, we are now limiting the amount of customers in to 150 .....this limit and nicer weather has only seemed to increase interest with ppl standing in line as if they are missing out on something.....It's surreal as well as unfair to the small guy who was forced to shut down, especially in the counties that are away from the 2 or 3 main hotsopts in the state.

I'd say open up after Easter (as Trump had hoped for) on a county by county basis.

 

[timo]

no way we have a vacine already developed.
Trump would never be able to keep his mouth shut if there was one.

 

[euphoric1]

Predictions are and were way overinflated as current numbers (facts) depict, Hopefully we can return to normalsy of sort, I still don't think the economic turn down was worth it. where is all this stimulus and bailout money coming from? cant just print it, we will be paying for this for a very long time, money isn't free folks.

 

[DamageInc]

no way we have a vacine already developed.
Trump would never be able to keep his mouth shut if there was one.

There is no vaccine yet, but hopefully the 17 years of work (on the first SARS) will pay dividends, since the viruses are so similar.

- - - Updated - - -

Have spent some time today looking over the latest data and trends.

It looks like we may have reached the apex of the new case curve here in the US, or are within 3-4 days of it. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Spain, Italy have all been dropping for days. The US saw it’s first drop since the rapid spread started. There may still be a uptick or two because of growing testing, but in reality the true number of new persons sick will be dropping during any uptick.

i predict the current restrictions will remain in place to the end of the month for the US as a whole. Then after that the gathering of somewhere between 15 and 25 people will be allowed as long as they are all wearing masks. Not long after that, most smaller businesses will be allowed to open. Larger ones too, as long as there are not more than the gathering limit. A week or two after that, bars and restaurants will be able to open to the public, but there could be a limit to how many can be in the building based on its size.

By mid-June, the feds will announce a vaccine or successful treatment, or both (I actually believe we have one or both right now, but is being kept under wraps because of the major problems it would cause because the supply is nowhere near the demand). By mid-June the supply will be able to meet the demand. Once we have a treatment or vaccine all will be back to the way it was before the virus came.

i also believe the feds might let state and or local governments change the dates of when the restrictions end- either earlier or later.

Time will tell!

What day you?

Those all sound like reasonable predictions, except the vaccine by summer. Not gonna happen. But some of the drugs they are experimenting with are showing a lot of promise, and that is our best hope to get things back to normal.

 

[tquick67675]

Nice analysis, John.

This will have been the most overblown thing in history when it is all done.

Tens of millions of people are left without a means to support their families. Thousands of businesses are going to fail. To save less than 100,000 lives.

Before any of you say "if we can save just one life"... Tell us what issue you're going to take up when this is over to "save just one life". If we are so concerned about "one life" then we MUST be willing to ban ALL risky behavior tobacco, alcohol, guns, knives, sex, snowmobiles, certain forms of birth control. I could go on for DAYS.

8 million people die annually from tobacco. That means 2.5 million people died from tobacco use in the same amount of time that Covid-19 killed 85,000.

Abortion kills 750,000 in the US alone a year. At this point, this thing looks to kill 60,000 Americans. Sad, but overblown.

I say all of this and have parents and friends in the risk categories including myself.

There has to be something else to all of this.

 

[slimcake]

Can't wait for it to end so I can get out and spend some money!!! ......I also need haircut REALLY bad. Lol

10-4 on the haircut thing!! i am a once a month haircut guy and its been 2 months. Pretty sure I could put a pony tail holder on top of my head....LOL if that is the worst thing that happens to me during all this I will be very happy!! I agree with you John. I really hope we are on the downward slide. I have a lot I could say about how this all went down but I don't want to ruin my day....

 

[xcr440]

Pretty sure I could put a pony tail holder on top of my head....LOL

No MAN BUNS! LOL

 

[slimcake]

No MAN BUNS! LOL

Theres no enjoyment here. My wife keeps threatening to put gel in it to see how big she can make my mop. Calling me Mr. Kennedy and what not.... If this was july I woulda already shaved it! Its like a stocking cap up there!! I can deal with a problem like this though.

 

[jime]

states will come back online on their own, one at a time, much as they went in to this. the states are in charge not the feds.

antibody tests are coming now and will be ramped up to assess the workforce, way before any vaccine arrives, (if ever reliably).

whac-a-mole is the game we'll be playing with different hot spots for some time, that is just what all this work is aiming for, no rush at the doctors office.

my best case is we find a larger portions of population has had this and recovered. call us all fools, and start back into business April 22- May 1. that is my GUESS

of course new rules and regulations will live with us forever much like 9/11

 

[xcr440]

Theres no enjoyment here. My wife keeps threatening to put gel in it to see how big she can make my mop. Calling me Mr. Kennedy and what not.... If this was july I woulda already shaved it! Its like a stocking cap up there!! I can deal with a problem like this though.

HAHA - I got lucky, I had my last cut before sledding season ramped up October 20th, and got one on the 11th of March when I called it a season on the sled, 5 days before shut down.... I'd have cut my own by now.

 

[dfattack]

Nice analysis, John.

This will have been the most overblown thing in history when it is all done.

Tens of millions of people are left without a means to support their families. Thousands of businesses are going to fail. To save less than 100,000 lives.

Before any of you say "if we can save just one life"... Tell us what issue you're going to take up when this is over to "save just one life". If we are so concerned about "one life" then we MUST be willing to ban ALL risky behavior tobacco, alcohol, guns, knives, sex, snowmobiles, certain forms of birth control. I could go on for DAYS.

8 million people die annually from tobacco. That means 2.5 million people died from tobacco use in the same amount of time that Covid-19 killed 85,000.

Abortion kills 750,000 in the US alone a year. At this point, this thing looks to kill 60,000 Americans. Sad, but overblown.

I say all of this and have parents and friends in the risk categories including myself.

There has to be something else to all of this.

I agree with what you said. Some will say the examples you use are by choice. Meaning snowmobiling, smoking, driving, etc are all by choice and the virus isn't. I'm not one of them but they will say it. I've said this before, if the country uses this fiasco as the new "standard" for responses to virus threats then we will have to go through this every year due to the annual flu. That cannot and should not happen. Our economy as well as the rest of the world's economy will not be able to handle this response annually...if ever again.

 

[Highflyer]

no way we have a vacine already developed.
Trump would never be able to keep his mouth shut if there was one.

Watch his daily press conferences. He references drugs and vaccines being in the works every day. Or how he is pushing the FDA to speed up the process.