Weather patterns for winter following dry summers?

[cuzzinolaf]

Hey John,

Any hopes of the hot and dry summer translating to a snowy and cold winter? I'm just looking for something good to come out of this drought and warm weather.

I tried to find weather patterns in the "interweb" and haven't had much luck. Any statistics you can post up that might give us something to look forward to?

Thanks!

 

[jd]

Well, it's depends on which part of the Midwest you are talking about, but suspect in your case it might be from say... Mass City area north?!

Which is sort of a mixed bag of results, but overall looks good. The big hot and dry years in the past 50-70 have been 1950, 1974, 1983, 1988 and 1995. Looking at the historical data for the Keweenaw, it points to either average years (around 240") with a couple being over 300.

We'll just have to wait and see and hope that any El Nino does not grow to be a strong one.

-John

 

[R2D]

It is dry here and looks to be dry in the coming month.

How about the northern suburbs of Chicago John?

Correct me if I am wrong, my understanding is:
Mild to moderate El Nino= average snowfall
Strong El Nino=below average snowfall

 

[farmermark]

John,

Little different spin on this thread. The more active tropics now, could they have any impact on Midwest weather? I have heard a strong storm can actually slow down fronts and even cause them to stall out and even moisture from the gulf get sent farther north and stronger sometimes?

I seem to remember a Labor day storm here in WI that was caused by remnants of a strong hurricane traveling up the Mississippi and giving us a rainy spell in the late 80's

Mark

 

[jd]

R2D-

El Nino's impacts on Midwest winter weather is more along the lines of temperature and not snowfall. Obviously warmer temps typically lead to less snowfall, but it is possible to have a warmer than average winter, with above average snowfall and also the opposite.

Mark-

It's not the actual storms that stall the weather patterns across the mid-latitudes, it is actually the parent high pressure that does. While tropical systems can produce some very horrific weather, they are very fragile and even the weakest of weather systems like cold fronts can severely impact tropical systems.

However, most tropical systems tend to form on the SW or west side of a strong area of high pressure in the tropics or sub-tropics. It is those highs that can get in the way of things like fronts or other weather systems in the mid-latitudes (latitude where the US sits). So it gives the appearance as though it is the storm that did the stalling, when in fact, it is the high pressure system that does the blocking or stalling.

-John

 

[R2D]

R2D-

El Nino's impacts on Midwest winter weather is more along the lines of temperature and not snowfall. Obviously warmer temps typically lead to less snowfall, but it is possible to have a warmer than average winter, with above average snowfall and also the opposite.

-John

So a strong El Nino would bring a warmer than average winter?

Signed,

Clueless Plow Jockey trying to learn weather

 

[jd]

So a strong El Nino would bring a warmer than average winter?

.

A moderate to strong El Nino increases the odds of a warmer than average winter in the north central US, but does not guarantee it.

-John