What Brought All This Snow?

[maximumpsi]

John , just curious why we went from no snow in December and January to record snow in February in Minneapolis and many other places across the northwoods. Was there a meteorological pattern change that explains the significant change in snowfall?

 

[jd]

There was most certainly a pattern change. An upper air trough dug into the central US and put the NW 1/2 to 2/3rd in the sweet spot for precip and below average temps, which resulted in the snow. As for what brought about this change, we just do not know what makes the jetstream make large scale changes in its shape, strength and position, nor do we know why it sometimes gets locked into that particular setup for many weeks, while other times it changes again.

-John

 

[maximumpsi]

Wasn't there a weak El Nino in place, reducing the chance for snow? Did that fade, or did the jetstream change override the effects of El Nino?

 

[jd]

I don't believe it was ever designated an El Nino, even a weak one. It was thought it might get there, but fell just shy. The fact that it did not and the sea surface temps cooled some might have played a role in what happened.

 

[maximumpsi]

Thanks John!

 

[Bullitt69]

I don't believe it was ever designated an El Nino, even a weak one. It was thought it might get there, but fell just shy. The fact that it did not and the sea surface temps cooled some might have played a role in what happened.

How about that? And I was telling everyone it was going to be a mild winter LOL

 

[dfattack]

There was most certainly a pattern change. An upper air trough dug into the central US and put the NW 1/2 to 2/3rd in the sweet spot for precip and below average temps, which resulted in the snow. As for what brought about this change, we just do not know what makes the jetstream make large scale changes in its shape, strength and position, nor do we know why it sometimes gets locked into that particular setup for many weeks, while other times it changes again.

-John

John,

I'm not asking this question to find fault in any way, but I'm wondering if you ever go back and compare your seasonal forecast with what actually took place once the winter is over. If you do, can you learn anything from analyzing the actual results which can then help you with your long term forecasts going forward? Maybe this question has been asked before and If so I apologize. Unfortunately I never read about it.

 

[jd]

John,

I'm not asking this question to find fault in any way, but I'm wondering if you ever go back and compare your seasonal forecast with what actually took place once the winter is over. If you do, can you learn anything from analyzing the actual results which can then help you with your long term forecasts going forward? Maybe this question has been asked before and If so I apologize. Unfortunately I never read about it.

I sure do. That is the reason for my big disclaimer about my and any seasonal forecast you look at!

Somethings are learned, but not much!

-John